宏观与大类资产周报：2026年中国资产定价锚有望重回增长端-20251207

Domestic Economic Indicators - High-frequency data indicates a significant rebound in November export growth, expected to be a key highlight for year-end economic performance[1] - The upcoming Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conferences are unlikely to introduce further growth-stabilizing policies for the year[1] - The RMB has shown signs of accelerated appreciation, with both onshore and offshore rates surpassing 7.07, marking a new high in over a year[1] International Economic Context - The Japanese yen is approaching the 155-160 range, increasing the likelihood of a December interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which could impact global capital markets[1] - Ongoing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have not yielded substantial progress in negotiations, maintaining a stalemate[1] Asset Pricing Outlook - By 2026, China's asset pricing anchor is expected to return to a growth trajectory, with total factor productivity already on the rise this year[2] - The valuation center for equity assets is anticipated to shift upward significantly, indicating a return to growth-driven asset pricing[2] - December's late period may present a buying opportunity, although potential risk-off scenarios due to U.S.-Japan monetary discrepancies may necessitate a delay[2] Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank's operations remain moderately tight, with a net injection of 663.8 billion yuan through reverse repos this week[6] - The average weekly rate for DR001 decreased by 1.228 basis points to 1.3005%, while DR007 fell by 1.93 basis points to 1.4431%[7] Government Debt and Market Performance - The net issuance of government bonds has slightly eased, with a planned issuance of 3904.55 billion yuan for the upcoming week, up from 3317.17 billion yuan[20] - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% this week and 16.44% year-to-date[37]