HUAXI Securities·2025-12-07 13:37Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue and other income reaching HKD 21.851 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.63%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching HKD 13.419 billion, up 44.8% year-on-year [1][15][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of HKD 7.775 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.73%, and a net profit of HKD 4.9 billion, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 55.80% [1][15]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by increased trading activity, with trading fees and settlement fees contributing significantly to the revenue increase [16][55]. 2. Market Dynamics - The proportion of southbound trading has been steadily increasing, accounting for 53% of the overall trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market by Q3 2025, up from 12% in 2019 [2]. - The average daily trading amount (ADT) for the Hong Kong stock market increased by 126% year-on-year to HKD 256.4 billion, with the southbound trading ADT growing by 229% to HKD 125.9 billion [16]. 3. IPO Activity - The acceleration of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to enhance the revenue elasticity of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with over 170 A-share companies planning to list in Hong Kong by November 2025 [3][64]. - The IPO market in Hong Kong is projected to raise HKD 280 billion (approximately USD 36 billion) in 2025, marking a 137% increase from 2024 [65]. 4. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The company operates a vertically integrated business model with multiple exchanges and clearing companies, enhancing operational efficiency and cost control [4][42]. - The diversified product offerings, including stocks, derivatives, commodities, and data services, create a robust ecosystem that mitigates the impact of market volatility on performance [7][50]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 24.81 billion, HKD 26.97 billion, and HKD 28.95 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be HKD 14.50 billion, HKD 15.95 billion, and HKD 17.55 billion [8][10].