品种久期跟踪：高波动的久期选择

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The duration of secondary capital bonds has been continuously rising, while the durations of other credit bonds have generally shortened. As of December 5, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.90 years and 2.27 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.31 years, 3.78 years, and 1.94 years respectively. General commercial financial bonds were at a relatively low historical level, and secondary capital bonds were at a relatively high historical level. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.53 years, 1.83 years, 3.33 years, and 1.19 years respectively. The duration of securities subordinated bonds has significantly shortened compared to last week, and the durations of securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds were at relatively low historical levels [2][9]. - The coupon duration crowding index has slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, the coupon duration crowding index declined. This week, it increased compared to last week and is currently at the 20.8% level since March 2021 [11]. Summary by Directory 1. All - Variety Duration Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading duration hovered around 1.90 years. The duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds lengthened to 5.50 years, and the trading duration of Guangxi provincial urban investment bonds shortened to around 1.22 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, Henan prefecture - level cities, and Hunan province have exceeded 90%, and the duration of Hunan provincial urban investment bonds is approaching the highest level since 2021 [3][15]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds shortened compared to last week and was generally around 2.27 years. The trading duration of the transportation industry lengthened to 2.02 years, and the trading duration of the food and beverage industry shortened to 0.55 years. The trading duration of the real estate industry was at a relatively low historical level, while those of the non - ferrous metals and pharmaceutical and biological industries were at relatively high historical levels [3][21]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.94 years, at the 35.9% historical quantile, lower than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.31 years, at the 95.1% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.78 years, at the 67.7% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at historical quantiles of 71.4%, 22%, 31.8%, and 61.2% respectively. The overall duration of other financial bonds has shortened compared to last week [3][26]. 2. Variety Microscope - Coupon duration crowding index: After reaching its peak in March 2024, the coupon duration crowding index decreased and then increased slightly this week. It is currently at the 20.8% level since March 2021 [11]. - Regional analysis of urban investment bonds: The report provides the durations and historical quantiles of urban investment bonds in different provinces and administrative levels, such as the duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds lengthening to 5.50 years and Guangxi provincial urban investment bonds shortening to 1.22 years [15][20]. - Industry analysis of industrial bonds: Different industries within industrial bonds showed different duration changes. For example, the transportation industry's duration lengthened, and the food and beverage industry's duration shortened [21].