量化择时周报：市场情绪得分继续回落，多项指标维持震荡-20251207

Group 1: Market Sentiment - The market sentiment score continued to decline, reaching 2.4 as of December 5, down from 3.15 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook from a sentiment perspective [2][8] - The overall trading activity in the market decreased, with total A-share trading volume dropping by 2.35% week-on-week, averaging 16,961.78 billion yuan, reflecting reduced market activity [15] - The financing balance ratio has been on the rise, reaching a three-year high, suggesting an increase in leveraged funds and a structural recovery in market risk appetite [28] Group 2: Sector Performance - The short-term scores for sectors such as telecommunications, household appliances, national defense, social services, and building materials have shown upward trends, with the petroleum and petrochemical sector having the highest short-term score of 79.66 [40][41] - The industry trading volatility has slightly decreased, indicating a slowdown in the pace of capital switching between sectors, with liquidity marginally weakening [23][26] - The correlation between sector crowding and weekly price changes is negligible, suggesting that high crowding sectors like national defense and telecommunications have experienced significant gains, but caution is advised regarding potential high-level pullbacks [44][46] Group 3: Timing Models - The current model indicates a preference for large-cap and value styles, with signals suggesting a potential strengthening of these trends in the future [40][50] - The communication sector has seen a rapid increase in short-term scores, indicating a favorable outlook for this sector [40] - The model's analysis of the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that while the value style is currently dominant, there may be a weakening of this signal in the near future [50]