躁动行情何时至——策略周聚焦

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that spring market rallies are often unrelated to the previous year's main themes and tend to favor small-cap growth stocks, with a historical tendency for cyclical and technology manufacturing sectors to lead [10][12][19] - Historical data shows that prior to spring rallies, the market often experiences noticeable declines or fluctuations, with an average increase of 14.2% in the Shanghai Composite Index during the rally period, while the preceding one and three months typically see declines of 6.4% and 3.9% respectively [15][19] - The report emphasizes that policy expectations are the primary driving force behind spring rallies, with significant attention on the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year to set the policy direction for the following year [3][19][20] Group 2 - The report identifies that during the past 16 years of spring rallies, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, computers, and machinery have consistently ranked among the top performers, highlighting their high elasticity and sensitivity to policy changes [2][10][14] - Defensive or low-elasticity sectors like banking, utilities, food and beverage, real estate, and retail have shown weaker performance during these rallies, indicating a higher risk appetite in the market during such periods [2][10] - The report suggests that the current market adjustment may have reached its limit, with indicators showing a recovery in industry differentiation and a potential end to the high-low cut phenomenon, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [4][21]