商品期权周报：2025年第49周-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market increased slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 7.92 million lots and an average daily open interest of 11.41 million lots, showing a week-on-week change of +2.59% and +8.99% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][9]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical sector mostly declining and the metal sector mostly rising. Most commodity options' implied volatility increased weekly. For varieties with high implied volatility, investors should be wary of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; for those with low implied volatility, buying options has a higher cost - performance ratio [2][19]. - The PCR of trading volume and open interest of different varieties reflects the market's short - term and long - term expectations of rising or falling prices. For example, the PCR of trading volume of lithium carbonate, apple, and live pigs is at a historical high, while that of aluminum, zinc, and gold is at a one - year low [3][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 7.92 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 11.41 million lots, with week - on - week changes of +2.59% and +8.99% respectively [1][9]. - Actively traded varieties this week included silver (760,000 lots), lithium carbonate (750,000 lots), and glass (640,000 lots) [1][9]. - Three varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, namely Shanghai aluminum (+164%), aluminum alloy (+138%), and pulp (+123%) [1][9]. - The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were p - xylene (-96%), apple (-93%), and red dates (-92%) [1][9]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (1.25 million lots), soda ash (1.01 million lots), and soybean meal (840,000 lots) [1][9]. - The varieties with a rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest were silver (+76%), tin (+71%), and synthetic rubber (+50%) [1][9]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Changes - The energy - chemical sector mostly declined, and the metal sector mostly rose. The varieties with high weekly increases included silver (+7.54%), copper (+6.12%), and pulp (+4.61%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included alumina (-5.62%), glass (-5.60%), and caustic soda (-5.58%) [2][19]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased weekly. 212 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50th percentile of the one - year historical data. The implied volatility of Shanghai copper and Shanghai aluminum increased by 8.03 and 5.48 percentage points respectively this week [2][19]. - The varieties with implied volatility at a one - year historical high included corn, copper, aluminum, tin, silver, and pulp; those with implied volatility at a one - year historical low included urea, glass, rapeseed meal, natural rubber, PTA, iron ore, and soda ash [2][19]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The PCR of trading volume of lithium carbonate, apple, and live pigs was at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the PCR of trading volume of aluminum, zinc, gold, styrene, and LPG was at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase [3][20]. - The PCR of open interest of p - xylene, lithium carbonate, iron ore, pulp, and silver was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulation of the sentiment of betting on a decline; the PCR of open interest of gold, aluminum, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, and methanol was at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of the sentiment of betting on an increase [3][20]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website [24].