东吴证券晨会纪要-20251207

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the macro strategy report emphasizes that new consumption is expected to gradually take over traditional consumption as the main driver of China's commodity consumption, supported by a policy document issued by six ministries aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods [13][14] - The report highlights that the new consumption model focuses on emotional value and technological content, with short video platforms and experiential economies reshaping online and offline consumption scenarios [13][14] Fixed Income Strategy - The 2026 convertible bond strategy indicates that the main theme will revolve around the dual drivers of carbon neutrality and AI, with a focus on the entire "source-network-load-storage" chain, suggesting that the market will benefit from the expansion of mid and small-cap stocks [16] - The report anticipates that the supply-demand structure of convertible bonds will improve, with a notable increase in the availability of mainline targets, and emphasizes the importance of adapting traditional convertible bond allocation frameworks for success in 2026 [16] Industry Research - The research on the U.S. electricity and AI energy storage sector indicates that the demand for power supply and AI energy storage is expected to surge, driven by the increasing electricity consumption of AI data centers, with a projected compound annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years [21][22] - The report suggests that the integration of green electricity and storage solutions will be a primary focus, with significant growth potential in the market for energy storage systems, particularly benefiting companies like CATL and Sungrow [21][22] - The liquid cooling industry report states that the demand for liquid cooling solutions is expected to rise sharply due to the increasing power density of chips, with a projected market size of 353 billion yuan for ASIC liquid cooling systems and 697 billion yuan for NVIDIA liquid cooling systems by 2026 [23][24] Company Recommendations - Satellite Chemical (002648) is highlighted for its potential growth driven by high-end new materials, despite short-term impacts from maintenance activities, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating net profits of 55.5 billion, 69.7 billion, and 86.2 billion yuan respectively [7][24] - Changbai Mountain (603099) is recognized for its unique position in the tourism sector, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.6 billion, 1.9 billion, and 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting its growth potential in the ice and snow tourism market [8][9] - Hangyang Co., Ltd. (002430) is noted for its transition from equipment manufacturing to gas supply, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 11.57 billion, 12.94 billion, and 14.84 billion yuan, supported by its diverse business growth and favorable gas pricing [10][11]