金信期货日刊-20251208

Group 1: Report Core Viewpoints - The core logic of short - selling polysilicon futures revolves around supply - demand imbalance, unfulfilled policy expectations, and high inventory pressure [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index, which was sluggish in the morning, rose sharply in the afternoon driven by insurance and brokerage stocks. A small positive line today leaves a question mark on whether the Shanghai Composite Index can fill the upward gap next week. It is recommended to consider low - buying next week [6] - Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down [11] - As the Simandou project is put into production, the expectation of loose supply of iron ore further intensifies. The domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it should be viewed with a broad - range oscillation idea, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [13][14] - The daily melting of glass has declined, and the inventory has decreased again this week. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply - side clearance. Technically, it should be viewed with an oscillating and bearish idea [17][18] - The demand support for polysilicon is even weaker. The production reduction rhythm of wafer enterprises accelerated at the end of November, and the expected production schedule in December dropped sharply. It is recommended to seize short - selling opportunities [21] - Pulp rebounded due to multiple factors, but the fundamental changes are not substantial. The 03 and 05 contracts rose to the pressure level of 5500 - 5600, but the spot basis has not shown an obvious strengthening trend recently. It is temporarily judged to maintain a broad - range oscillation [24] Group 2: Polysilicon Futures Short - Selling Logic Details Supply Aspect - In October, China's polysilicon production reached 137,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%. The year - end inventory is likely to exceed 400,000 tons. The new production capacity in the northwest offsets the production reduction in the southwest during the dry season, and the supply - side pressure is difficult to relieve [3] Demand Aspect - The production schedule of downstream wafers in November decreased by 1GW month - on - month. Battery cell enterprises reduced purchases due to inventory accumulation. The photovoltaic terminal over - exploited demand due to the rush to install in the first half of the year, and the component tender volume in the fourth quarter decreased significantly year - on - year, which was transmitted to the polysilicon link [3] Policy Aspect - The promotion of policies such as state reserve and production quota lags behind, and the previous policy expectation premium has been retracted. The market's confidence in policies has weakened, and the positive news has less and less boosting power on the market, which is difficult to support price increases [3] Delivery Aspect - The forced cancellation of warehouse receipts in November will release spot goods. The futures delivery price is higher than the spot price, and long - position holders will suffer losses when taking delivery. Enterprises register warehouse receipts and sell to recover funds, which further intensifies the downward pressure on futures prices [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a small positive line today, leaving a question about filling the upward gap next week. It is recommended to consider low - buying next week [6] Gold Futures - Gold is in a complex oscillation and is expected to continue. Avoid chasing up or selling down [11] Iron Ore Futures - With the Simandou project's production, supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak. Adopt a broad - range oscillation strategy with high - selling and low - buying [13][14] Glass Futures - Daily melting declined, and inventory decreased this week due to policies. Technically, it is bearish in oscillation [17][18] Polysilicon Futures - Demand support is weak. Wafer production reduction accelerated in November, and the expected production in December dropped sharply. Seize short - selling opportunities [21] Pulp Futures - Pulp rebounded due to multiple factors, but fundamentals changed little. 03 and 05 contracts reached the pressure level, and the basis did not strengthen. It will maintain a broad - range oscillation [24]