南华期货原油产业周报：俄乌和谈前景不明，油价区间震荡-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are fluctuating within a range due to the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and the continuously weak fundamentals. The Russia-Ukraine situation remains an important short - term factor affecting oil prices. Long - term concerns about supply surplus continue to suppress oil prices, and the weak global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery [1]. - Near - term oil prices are difficult to break through the trading range. It is necessary to wait for policy implementation and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading within the range. The long - term trading logic of crude oil still needs to focus on the evolution of the long - term supply - demand pattern. If the Russia - Ukraine conflict eases substantially and the US sanctions on Russia may loosen, the increase in Russian oil exports will intensify the global supply glut. If the OPEC+ capacity assessment adjustment tends to be loose, it will also increase the supply pressure. On the demand side, the weak global economic background remains unchanged, and the boosting effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on crude oil demand still needs time to be verified [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and the weak fundamentals cause oil prices to fluctuate within a range. Russia's President Putin rejected some key proposals in the US - drafted peace plan. Ukrainian negotiators will hold a new round of talks in Florida. Since the US sanctions took effect on November 21st, Russian crude oil exports have shown strong resilience, although the total export volume in November was lower than that in October. India and Turkey basically reduced their purchases of Lukoil barrels, while China continued to import in small but stable quantities [1]. - Long - term concerns about supply surplus continue to suppress oil prices. The weak global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery. Recently, Asian traders expect Saudi Aramco to lower the official selling price spread of Arab Light crude oil shipped to Asia, which further weakens the support for crude oil [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: Short - term trading is expected to be stable with some fluctuations [6]. - Base Spread, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: - Single - side Trading: Trade within the range. Pay attention to the potential resistance of Brent crude at around $65 per barrel and the potential support at around $62 per barrel [6]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [9]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: US President Donald Trump said that the US military will "soon" start attacking targets in Venezuela. The US Navy has deployed its largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, and its strike group to the Caribbean. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that the US is seeking to seize its large crude oil reserves by force [8]. - Negative Information: Saudi Arabia has set the selling price of Arab Light crude oil exported to Asia in January 2026 at a premium of $0.6 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average. The official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to the US in January has been set at a premium of $2.50 per barrel to the Argus Sour Crude Index. US officials and sources revealed that Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas and unveil a new governance structure for the establishment of a Gaza government and a peace committee. Russian President Putin said that Russia's energy cooperation with India is not affected [8]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - Russia - Ukraine Peace Negotiations: Continue to monitor whether the Russia - Ukraine peace talks can achieve substantial progress. If the two sides reach a substantial consensus on ceasefire and lifting sanctions on Russia, the market's expectation of the return of Russian oil supply will increase, which may intensify the pressure of crude oil supply surplus. If the negotiations encounter obstacles, the geopolitical risk premium may rise in the short term [10]. - Middle East Situation: US officials and sources revealed that Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas [10]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - Trend Analysis: International oil prices have generally remained stable, continuing the recent trading - range pattern and showing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive month [13]. - Domestic Market: - Disk Analysis: Last week, the closing price of the SC main contract SC2601 was 457.1 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 0.75% [15]. - Fund and Position Analysis: The open interest of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 74,972 lots, an increase of 2,242 lots from the previous week [16]. - Foreign Market: - Disk Analysis: The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.79% to close at $60.14 per barrel, a weekly increase of 2.72%. The main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.01% to close at $63.9 per barrel, a weekly increase of 2.44% [18]. - Fund and Position Analysis: The trading volume of the main contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures was 243,200 lots, with an open interest of 616,400 lots, a daily decrease of 64,000 lots. The trading volume of the main contract of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures was 227,000 lots, with an open interest of 307,000 lots, a daily decrease of 190,000 lots [19]. - Domestic and Foreign Price Spread Tracking: - Price Spread: As of December 5th, the price spread of SC - Brent continuous contract 1 was $0.88 per barrel, the price spread of SC - WTI continuous contract 1 was $4.52 per barrel, the price spread of SC - Dubai continuous contract 1 was $0.50 per barrel, and the price spread of Brent - WTI continuous contract 1 was $3.64 per barrel [24]. - Arbitrage: - Valuation: As of December 5th, the theoretical price of SC M + 3 was 491.88 yuan per barrel, with a deviation of - 6.87% from the market price, and the deviation narrowed compared with last week [25]. - Profit: The estimated theoretical on - shore profit of SC was - 37.38 yuan per barrel, and the loss narrowed compared with last week [25]. - Price Spread: The market price spread of SC M + 3 - Brent M + 2 was $1.45 per barrel, and the theoretical price spread was $6.18 per barrel. From the perspective of domestic and foreign price spreads, the SC - Brent price spread was weak, and the domestic crude oil market was relatively weak under the background of OPEC+ production increase [25]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Calendar Spread Tracking - As of December 5th, the Brent calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.61 per barrel, the previous value was 1.23; the WTI calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.52 per barrel, the previous value was 0.46; the SC calendar spread (01 - 03) was 1.3 yuan per barrel, the previous value was - 5.6 yuan per barrel [28]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Price Spread Tracking - As of December 5th, the SC - Brent price spread of continuous contract 1 was $0.88 per barrel, the previous value was $0.58 per barrel; the Brent - WTI price spread of continuous contract 1 was $3.64 per barrel, the previous value was $4.65 per barrel [40]. 3.4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of December 5th, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market weakened across the board this week. In the North American and Asia - Pacific regions, the cracking performance showed that diesel was stronger than gasoline. The crack spreads in the Chinese market strengthened, and the refinery profits were differentiated. The east - west crack spreads weakened [52]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - side Tracking - In October, the global crude oil and related liquids production was 10,818 barrels per day, a decrease of 31 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the global crude oil and related liquids production will reach 10,597 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 280 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 10,737 barrels per day, an increase of 141 barrels per day compared with 2025 [85]. - In October, the US crude oil production was 1379 barrels per day, an increase of 1 barrel per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the US crude oil production will reach 1359 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 36 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 1358 barrels per day, a decrease of 1 barrel per day compared with 2025 [85]. - In October, the crude oil production of OPEC countries was 2871 barrels per day, a decrease of 43.5 barrels per day compared with September; the crude oil production of Non - OPEC DoC countries was 1432 barrels per day, a decrease of 23 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the crude oil production of OPEC countries will reach 2784 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 75 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 2790 barrels per day, an increase of 7 barrels per day compared with 2025 [85]. 3.5.2 Demand - side Tracking - No specific quantitative analysis is provided in the text, but it is mentioned that global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery [1]. 3.5.3 Inventory - side Tracking - No specific inventory data for this period is mentioned in the text, but some inventory seasonal charts are provided, such as the US commercial crude oil weekly inventory (excluding strategic reserves) seasonal chart and the US Cushing crude oil weekly inventory seasonal chart [81]. 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - Some export - related charts are provided, such as the US crude oil weekly export volume seasonal chart, the US crude oil export vessel chart, the Russian crude oil export volume/weekly frequency chart, and the Russian crude oil export volume to South Korea/weekly frequency chart. However, no specific quantitative analysis of import - export data for this period is given [83]. 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - No specific balance sheet data analysis is provided in the text.