橡胶板块2025年12月第1周报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market shows a pattern of decreasing supply in China and increasing supply overseas, with price fluctuations and inventory accumulation. The synthetic rubber market, especially the butadiene rubber segment, has sufficient supply and a decreasing inventory trend. The downstream consumption of the rubber sector shows a phenomenon where the farther from rubber, the stronger the data growth, while the closer data has not yet stabilized [3][35]. - The report provides trading strategies for rubber futures, including holding short - positions in RU01, NR01, and BR02 contracts, holding the spread position of RU2601 - NR2601, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Spot Prices: The average price of natural rubber in the RMB market has a narrow adjustment. The average price of Shanghai full - latex is 14,845 yuan/ton, and the average price of STR20 mixed rubber in the Shandong market is 14,543 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in North China is 10,000 yuan/ton, and the average price is 10,030 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply: For natural rubber, domestic supply decreases while overseas supply increases. The Yunnan production area has stopped tapping, and Hainan's output is affected by rainfall. Overseas, the weather in northeastern Thailand is normal, while the southern part and the Vietnamese production area are affected by rainfall. The average operating load of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber plants is 71.05%, with the Zhenhua New Materials plant increasing its load and the Maoming Petrochemical plant under maintenance [3]. - Demand: The price of natural rubber fluctuates within a range and moves downward. Downstream buyers make rigid - demand purchases at low prices, but the overall purchasing enthusiasm of factories is average due to the bearish expectation. The operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises is 62.99%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points from last week [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is 475,000 tons, an increase of 12,600 tons or 2.72% from the previous period. The general trade inventory is 400,500 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons or 3.14%. The butadiene rubber inventory continues to decline, with a decrease of 8.02% [3]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral Trading: Hold short - positions in the RU01 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 15,270 points; hold short - positions in the NR01 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 12,105 points; hold short - positions in the BR02 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 10,600 points [4]. - Arbitrage: Hold the spread position of RU2601 - NR2601 (1 lot to 1 lot) at + 3085 points, and set a stop - loss at the recent low of + 3065 points [4]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.3 Thailand Rubber Situation - Price and Relationship with RU: Since December, the price of Thai latex has dropped to 55.5 baht/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5%, with the decline narrowing and two consecutive months of marginal strengthening, which is bullish for the RU unilateral position. The "divergence" time point with RU is around March 2023. In November, the price of Thai cup lump dropped to 48.2 baht/kg, and the latex - cup lump spread is + 7.28 baht/kg, a year - on - year weakening of 2.69 baht/kg, still in a 13 - month marginal weakening trend. The "divergence" time point with RU is around March 2022 [7][12]. - Rainfall: Since November, Thailand has experienced severe floods due to heavy rainfall. Last week, the weighted rainfall for natural rubber production reached 39.01 mm/day, a record high since March 2011. However, this week, the rainfall has rapidly dropped to 1.05 mm/day, and the impact of abnormal weather is rapidly fading, with the market starting to trade on the expectation of increased production after heavy rain [17]. 3.4 Climate Data - In November, the Southern Oscillation Index rose to 12.5 points for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points; from September to November, the El Niño index cooled to - 0.6°C for six consecutive months, a year - on - year cooling of 0.3°C. The climate data has fallen back, which is bearish [21]. 3.5 African Rubber as a Substitute for NR - African rubber will be a substitute for the NR contract. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will announce the premium or discount (most likely a discount). If the discount is large, it will not attract sellers for delivery, having a small impact on the existing contract. If the discount is small or at par, it will attract a large amount of delivery due to delivery profit, thus having a greater impact on the current pricing of the NR contract [26]. 3.6 Rubber Downstream Consumption - Stock Index: As of December 2025, the CSI 1000 Index has fallen to 729 points for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 41.6% [35]. - Automobile Industry: In November 2025, the European automobile industry index rebounded slightly to - 29.7 points, a year - on - year increase of 39.9 points, and has been increasing year - on - year for five consecutive months [35]. - Rubber and Plastics Industry Electricity Consumption: In September 2025, the electricity consumption of the domestic rubber and plastics industry increased for four consecutive months, reaching 17.71 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%, the highest since January 2024 [35]. - Tire Production: In October 2025, the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [35]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber Supply and Profit - Butadiene Profit: According to Longzhong Information data, during this period, the profit of the C4 extraction process is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton from the previous period; the profit of the oxidative dehydrogenation process is - 1709 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous period. The price of raw material naphtha has risen, increasing the cost pressure on butadiene, and the price of Sinopec's butadiene has remained stable, reducing the extraction process profit. The oxidative dehydrogenation and coal - to - oil processes have increased their process profits due to the firm supply price [44]. - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit: According to Longzhong Information data, during this period, the theoretical production cost of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, the ex - factory price and market price have slightly increased, and the theoretical production profit generally remains at a high level [44]. 3.8 Synthetic Rubber Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 32,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons or 0.34% from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises next week will be 32,000 tons, a slight decrease from this period. After the hype atmosphere of raw materials and natural rubber cools down, the premium space in the butadiene market is expected to narrow, and the inventory level is expected to gradually shift from the factory end to the middle and lower reaches [52]. 3.9 Synthetic Rubber Apparent Consumption - In October, the apparent consumption of butadiene decreased for two consecutive months to 490,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, with the growth rate narrowing. Since September 2024, there has been a trend of incremental growth. In October, the apparent consumption of butadiene rubber increased for two consecutive months to 142,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%, and three consecutive months of marginal growth. Since October 2024, there has been a trend of incremental growth [69]. 3.10 Natural Rubber Supply - In October, the total production of natural rubber in the ANRPC increased to 1.144 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, with the growth rate narrowing; the total export volume increased to 826,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%, and the growth rate has been narrowing for four consecutive months [78]. 3.11 Natural Rubber Inventory - This week, the futures warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber has increased. As of Thursday this week, the total futures warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber is 45,700 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from the previous period. The total futures warehouse receipt inventory of 20 - rubber is 56,500 tons, an increase of 5200 tons from the previous period. As of the week of November 28, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is 475,000 tons, an increase of 12,600 tons or 2.72% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in the bonded area is 74,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 0.54%, and the general trade inventory is 400,500 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons or 3.14% [83][84]. 3.12 Mixed Rubber Basis - In October, domestic mixed rubber imports were 261,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%, and a marginal decrease for three consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, global automobile sales increased to 8.64 million vehicles for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and a marginal increase for nine consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, the domestic manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%; the US manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2% for two consecutive months, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The growth rate of the Sino - US manufacturing PMI has declined marginally for two consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, domestic commercial vehicle production decreased to 364,000 vehicles, and passenger vehicle production increased to 2.995 million vehicles for three consecutive months. In October, South Korean commercial vehicle production decreased to 18,000 vehicles for two consecutive months, and passenger vehicle production decreased to 285,000 vehicles. The Sino - Korean automobile production has increased marginally for two consecutive months, which is bearish for the mixed rubber basis [93]. 3.13 Tire Consumption - As of December 4, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 44.95 days, a decrease of 0.28 days from the previous period and an increase of 5.38 days year - on - year; the average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 39.51 days, a decrease of 0.44 days from the previous period and a decrease of 1.79 days year - on - year [94]. - In the semi - steel tire market, the market trading is weak during the month - end period. The all - season tire market is weakly stable, and at the end of the month, distributors have replenishment needs according to the task volume, with general channel sales. The snow tire market has sufficient supply, and the demand needs further improvement. In the all - steel tire market, the market trading is dull, affected by the seasonal off - season, the market demand has further weakened. With relatively sufficient market supply, the focus is on digesting existing inventory, and the purchase enthusiasm is average. The market transaction price is stable with a downward trend, and some merchants have promotional activities according to their own inventory [100].