宝城期货甲醇早报-20251208

Report Summary - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Report's Core View: Methanol futures are expected to run weakly in the short - term and show an oscillating trend in the medium - term, with an overall view of weak operation [1][5] - Summary by Related Catalog: - Time - cycle View: For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view suggests a weak operation [1] - Core Logic: After a previous stabilization and rebound, positive factors in the methanol futures market have been digested, and it has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. In the future, more methanol plants in Iran will reduce production due to gas restrictions, leading to a decline in supply expectations and a reduction in China's import pressure. Port inventories may enter a destocking cycle. However, the current domestic methanol supply pressure still exists, which may offset the decline in supply. There is also an expectation of demand release during the heating season in northern China. Against the backdrop of short - term divergence between bulls and bears, domestic methanol futures closed slightly lower in an oscillating manner on the night of last Friday, and are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend on Monday [5]