宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年12月8日）-20251208

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectation still exists [1][5]. - Currently, treasury bond futures are in an oscillatory consolidation stage, with relatively limited upward and downward momentum. In the short term, due to the low possibility of interest rate cuts, the mitigation of market uncertainty risks, the increasing profit - taking demand of institutions near the year - end, and concerns about the long - term bond supply pressure in the first quarter of next year, treasury bond futures are showing weakness. However, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and in the medium and long term, the monetary policy environment is moderately loose, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, TS is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Currently, they are in an oscillatory consolidation stage with limited upward and downward momentum. Short - term factors lead to weak performance, but medium - and long - term factors provide support, so they will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].