有色金属日报：铜-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For copper, with the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting likely to continue the rate - cut rhythm and China's year - end economic meeting expected to release clearer policy signals, the sentiment is slightly positive. The expected reduction in production due to tight mine supply and the tightening of spot supply support copper prices to reach new historical highs. In the short term, copper prices may rise further under the expectation of policy easing [5]. - For aluminum, with the domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreasing, the high premium of US spot aluminum, the continuous decrease of LME aluminum ingot inventory at a relatively low level, combined with supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rise of copper prices, aluminum prices may strengthen further [8]. - For lead, the port inventory of lead ore is decreasing marginally, and the factory inventory is accumulating normally. The operating rates of primary and recycled lead are rising, and the downstream battery enterprises' operating rate is also increasing. Although the smelter's factory inventory is rising, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has decreased to a low level, and the deliverable products in circulation are relatively scarce. In the short term, lead prices are expected to be strong [10]. - For zinc, in the medium term, the good profits of zinc mines will turn into a definite increase in supply, and the oversupply cycle of the zinc industry remains unchanged, so the upward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, with the supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots narrowing and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly after breaking through the pressure level [12]. - For tin, although the current demand in the tin market is weak, the bargaining power is limited due to the low downstream inventory. Supply disruptions are the determining factor for short - term prices, so the probability of short - term tin price increase is high [13]. - For nickel, the oversupply pressure of nickel remains large, but with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [16]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand mismatch in the domestic lithium carbonate market has not been reversed. The market's concerns about the sustainability of lithium mica production have been digested. The supply is less likely to have additional reduction, and the expectation of good consumption is strengthening. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [20]. - For alumina, after the rainy season, the shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production reduction is strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - For stainless steel, although the sales improved in November, the high inventory pressure is still significant. The focus of the market should be on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts. If the supply can be effectively controlled and the production cut intensity increases, or combined with positive policy signals and the release of downstream low - level restocking demand, it is expected to break the current supply - demand deadlock [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost price is relatively firm, and the policy continues to disrupt the supply side, so there is strong support at the bottom. However, the demand is relatively unstable and the delivery pressure forms an upper - level suppression. In the short term, the price may continue to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. Summary by Metals Copper - Market Information: On Friday, the domestic equity market strengthened, and copper prices continued to rise. LME copper 3M contract rose 2.02% to $11,665/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 92,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 275 tons to 162,550 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M premium fell to $23/ton. The weekly inventory of SHFE decreased by 0.9 tons to 8.9 tons, and the daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 tons to 3.1 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was stable at 170 yuan/ton, and the market supply was tight. The inventory in Guangdong increased, and the spot premium rose to 85 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 5,510 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy: The expected reduction in production due to tight mine supply and the tightening of spot supply support copper prices to reach new historical highs. In the short term, copper prices may rise further under the expectation of policy easing. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,400 - $11,800/ton [5]. Aluminum - Market Information: On Friday, precious metals and non - ferrous metals were strong, and aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum rose 0.45% to $2,900/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 22,165 yuan/ton. The open interest of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased significantly by 42,000 to 727,124 lots. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots in three regions decreased, and the inventory of aluminum rods in two regions also decreased. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline, and the market buying sentiment was weak. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 80 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading sentiment was light. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.3 tons to 528,300 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount [7]. - Strategy: With the domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreasing, the high premium of US spot aluminum, the continuous decrease of LME aluminum ingot inventory at a relatively low level, combined with supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rise of copper prices, aluminum prices may strengthen further. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,870 - $2,930/ton [8]. Lead - Market Information: On Friday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.33% to 17,298 yuan/ton, and the total open interest for unilateral trading was 80,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead 3S rose $12.5 to $2,017.5/ton, and the total open interest was 174,500 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 17,175 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,125 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingots in SHFE was 16,078 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 105 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 10 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 243,550 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 119,225 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - 49.15 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 91.5 dollars/ton. The ex - exchange ratio of the SHFE and LME lead was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 157.21 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory decreased to 21,600 tons [9]. - Strategy: The port inventory of lead ore is decreasing marginally, and the factory inventory is accumulating normally. The operating rates of primary and recycled lead are rising, and the downstream battery enterprises' operating rate is also increasing. Although the smelter's factory inventory is rising, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has decreased to a low level, and the deliverable products in circulation are relatively scarce. In the short term, lead prices are expected to be strong [10]. Zinc - Market Information: On Friday, the SHFE zinc index rose 1.87% to 23,311 yuan/ton, and the total open interest for unilateral trading was 208,060 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S rose $56 to $3,116.5/ton, and the total open interest was 221,900 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingot was 23,130 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 75 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 55 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 45 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 120 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots in SHFE was 60,729 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis was 75 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 55,375 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 5,075 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 163 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 61.01 dollars/ton. The ex - exchange ratio of the SHFE and LME zinc was 1.062, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,383 yuan/ton. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 4,000 tons to 140,300 tons [11]. - Strategy: In the medium term, the good profits of zinc mines will turn into a definite increase in supply, and the oversupply cycle of the zinc industry remains unchanged, so the upward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, with the supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots narrowing and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly after breaking through the pressure level [12]. Tin - Market Information: On December 5, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 316,230 yuan/ton, a 0.10% decrease from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts in SHFE increased by 185 tons to 6,576 tons. In terms of supply, the import of tin concentrate in China increased significantly in October, and the shortage of raw material supply was slightly alleviated. However, the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has worsened recently, disturbing tin ore transportation, and the market's concerns have increased. Media reported that the northern region of Nigeria will suspend all mining activities for six months. If implemented, it may further widen the supply gap of domestic tin ore. Historically, Nigeria exports about 700 metal tons of tin ore to China per month, accounting for about 4 - 5% of China's monthly tin production [13]. - Strategy: Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, the bargaining power is limited due to the low downstream inventory. Supply disruptions are the determining factor for short - term prices, so the probability of short - term tin price increase is high. It is recommended to go long at an appropriate time. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $40,000 - $44,000/ton [13]. Nickel - Market Information: On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 117,790 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums of various brands were stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 4,900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices were stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was $52.02/wet ton, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was $23/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was $52.7/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The decline of ferronickel prices slowed down, and the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 881 yuan/nickel point, with the average price unchanged from the previous day [15]. - Strategy: The oversupply pressure of nickel remains large, but with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and make a decision after the ferronickel prices stabilize. The reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is $13,500 - $15,500/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: On December 5, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 90,669 yuan, a 0.11% decrease from the previous working day and a 2.89% decrease within the week. The quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 90,200 - 91,600 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 100 yuan (- 0.11%) from the previous working day. The quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 89,200 - 89,700 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 0.11% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2601 contract was 92,160 yuan, a 1.64% decrease from the previous closing price and a 4.42% decrease within the week. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2,000 yuan. The CIF quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was $1,135 - $1,180/ton, with the average price decreasing by 1.49% from the previous day and 4.93% within the week [19]. - Strategy: The supply - demand mismatch in the domestic lithium carbonate market has not been reversed. The market's concerns about the sustainability of lithium mica production have been digested. The supply is less likely to have additional reduction, and the expectation of good consumption is strengthening. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate is 95,980 - 98,860 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - Market Information: On December 5, 2025, as of 15:00, the alumina index decreased by 1.99% to 2,607 yuan/ton, and the total open interest for unilateral trading was 673,000 lots, an increase of 21,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 2,740 yuan/ton, with a premium of 160 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $312/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 3 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Friday were 253,300 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the CIF price in Guinea remained at $70.5/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $68/ton [22]. - Strategy: After the rainy season, the shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production reduction is strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: At 15:00 on Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,500 yuan/ton, a 0.60% increase (+ 75) on the day, and the unilateral open interest was 202,700 lots, a decrease of 4,455 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in Foshan market was 12,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50