锌：消费转淡，上方压力仍存

Report Title - Zinc: Consumption Weakens, Upward Pressure Remains [1] Researcher Information - Researcher: Chen Hansong - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The zinc market faces a situation where consumption is turning weak, and there is still upward pressure on prices. The market is influenced by factors such as the supply and demand of zinc ore and refined zinc, as well as inventory changes. [5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - Supply and Demand in the Industry - Mine End: Recently, northern mines have gradually entered seasonal shutdowns. Although domestic smelters have reduced production, the shortage of zinc concentrate persists, and processing fees continue to decline. The import loss of zinc concentrate has continued to widen this week, and smelters mainly purchase domestic zinc ore. The trading of imported zinc concentrate in the market has been relatively quiet this week. Currently, the quotes for ordinary zinc concentrate are mostly around $50 - $60 per dry ton. Although the decline rate of imported zinc concentrate processing fees has slowed down, the overall trend is still downward. [5] - Smelting End: In December, some domestic smelters will increase production to meet the annual production target, and the commissioning of Kunlun Zinc Industry will also contribute to the output. However, considering the continuous decline in processing fees, which compresses the profits of smelters to a certain extent, smelters with higher marginal costs have turned into losses. In December, domestic smelters may have low production enthusiasm due to profit or loss issues, and the monthly output may decline compared to the previous month. [5] - Consumption: Domestic zinc consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [5] - Inventory Data: As of December 4, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 140,300 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons compared to November 27 and a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to December 1. [5] - Price Trend: Recently, due to the expected production cuts by smelters, Shanghai zinc has been running strongly. This week, zinc prices have risen rapidly due to the influence of the capital side. However, considering that the expected production cuts by smelters have basically been digested, domestic consumption is weakening, and the export window is closed, there is still upward pressure on Shanghai zinc prices. [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: Profitable long positions should be closed. Aggressive investors can try short positions at high prices with a light position, while conservative investors are advised to wait and see. Pay attention to the actual production cuts of domestic smelters. [5] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. [5] Chapter 2: Market Data - The content mainly lists some market data indicators, including spot premiums, basis in major consumption areas (LME cash - 3M), absolute prices and monthly spreads, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, warrants, and LME inventory by region, but no specific data analysis is provided. [7][13][16] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Production - In January - September 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 9.3609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 659,100 tons or 7.57%. Among them, overseas zinc concentrate production was 6.2959 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 518,100 tons or 8.97%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 3.065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 141,000 tons or 4.82%. [26] - In October, domestic zinc concentrate production was 330,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 12.33%. It is expected that domestic zinc concentrate production in November will decrease by 2.09% month - on - month to 323,900 tons. [26] - Inventory - As of November, according to SMM data, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters has increased by 0.48 days compared to the same period last year to 20.8 days, but the raw material inventory of smelters has been decreasing month by month recently. [26][41] - According to SMM data, the inventory of zinc concentrate in major domestic ports has decreased by 20,000 tons month - on - month to 300,000 tons. [26] Zinc Ore Import - In October 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% (164,500 physical tons) compared to September and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate was 4.3489 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In October, the top three countries of origin for imports were Peru (95,700 physical tons, accounting for 28.1%), Australia (49,800 physical tons, accounting for 14.6%), and Russia (32,400 physical tons, accounting for 9.5%). In November, on one hand, some zinc concentrates affected by periodic shipments may arrive in a concentrated manner, and the import volume of zinc concentrate is expected to recover; on the other hand, since October, although the internal - external price ratio is still poor, the winter storage demand of smelters is strong, and the processing fees of domestic zinc concentrate have dropped rapidly. Some smelters have started to purchase imported zinc concentrate to ensure raw materials, and the import volume of zinc concentrate in November is expected to recover compared to October. [28] Domestic Zinc Ore Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected decrease in the import of zinc concentrate. It is expected that the supply of domestic zinc concentrate in November may decrease. [40] Zinc Ore Processing Fees - In November, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3,000 yuan per ton. On December 5, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was reduced by 200 yuan to 1,850 yuan per metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index was reduced by 3.5 dollars per dry ton to $57.75 per dry ton. [45] Global Refined Zinc Production and Consumption - From January to September 2025, according to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, global refined zinc production was 10.2938 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 48,900 tons or 0.48%; global refined zinc consumption was 10.1353 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,800 tons or 0.23%. From January to September 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 158,500 tons. From January to September, China's refined zinc production was 5.224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.03% or 343,000 tons; overseas refined zinc production was 5.0698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.48% or 294,100 tons. [49] - In September, global refined zinc production was 1.1952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. In September, global refined zinc demand was 1.1749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The global refined zinc surplus was 20,300 tons. Among them, China's refined zinc production in September was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.69%; overseas refined zinc production was 565,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.78%. [49] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - Smelter Operation: In October, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 90.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 91.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14%; the operating rate of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; the operating rate of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 80.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%. [52] - Production: According to SMM data, in October, SMM's domestic refined zinc production increased by 2.85% month - on - month to 617,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. It is expected that domestic refined zinc production in November will be 611,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 19.93%. [53] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,800 tons or 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.63%. In October, the export volume of refined zinc was 8,500 tons, and the net import of refined zinc in October was 10,300 tons. In December, domestic refined zinc production is expected to continue to decrease. Considering that the export window may open, there is an expected increase in refined zinc exports, which will alleviate the domestic refined zinc surplus to a certain extent. [56][57] Downstream Consumption - The report lists some downstream consumption - related data indicators, including the operating rate of primary processing enterprises (such as galvanizing, die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide), inventory of primary processing enterprises, real estate construction data, land transaction premium rate, real estate sales data, infrastructure investment data, domestic automobile production and export data, and domestic white - goods production data, but no specific data analysis is provided. [60][67][78][82][85]