铜周报：交割风险提高，铜价再创新高-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper prices continues. The sharp increase in LME cancelled warehouse receipts has triggered a new round of copper price hikes. It is recommended to continue holding previous long positions. For new positions, pay attention to capital changes and be wary of short - term pullbacks. Overall, adopt a strategy of buying on dips [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Macro - aspect: The Bank of Japan Governor strongly hinted at an interest rate hike in December, aiming to raise the rate to 0.75%, leading to a double - kill in Japanese stocks and bonds. Trump hinted that the candidate for the Fed Chair is Hassett. The US ADP employment data in November decreased by 32,000, strengthening the narrative of a further weakening labor market and basically confirming a rate cut in December [4]. - Copper Production: In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. SMM expects a month - on - month increase of 65,700 tons in December [5]. - Consumption: Domestically, the demand is weakening marginally. Real estate continues to drag down the market, and the production schedules of photovoltaic and air - conditioning sectors have declined significantly. The main support for the market in the later stage comes from orders from the two power grids, the automotive industry, and energy - storage batteries. Downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and consumption weakens significantly after the price breaks through 90,000 yuan/ton. However, near the end of the year, some traders increase their procurement to meet annual targets or expect a larger price difference, keeping the spot premium firm [6]. - Inventory and Spread: In the long run, non - US supply is generally tight. Consider inter - period positive spreads (buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts) after the inventory declines later. The negotiation of long - term import contracts for refined copper in China is not going smoothly. If the long - term import volume decreases significantly, the supply situation in China may intensify, and the ratio may rebound. However, due to tight supply in non - US regions, the ratio may fluctuate sharply between the opening of the import window and the opening of the export window. Considering the short - term accumulation of LME short - squeeze risks, reverse spreads carry high risks, so cautious operation is recommended [8]. 3.2 Internal and External Price Trends No specific content in the provided text for in - depth summary. 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking - Copper Concentrate: CSPT recently reached a consensus to reduce the production capacity of copper concentrate by over 10% in 2026. On December 5th, the SMM imported copper concentrate index was reported at - 42.86 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 0.11 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The port inventory increased to 750,200 physical tons, an increase of 27,100 physical tons from the previous period. China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates in October were 2451,500 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 25.1347 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42% [7][25][30]. - Scrap Copper: As of December 5th, the refined - scrap copper price difference was 5511 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rods decreased by 9.14 percentage points week - on - week to 9.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 19.88 percentage points. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 902,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.18%. In October, China imported 196,600 tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 7.35%, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 1.8955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.11% [38][42]. - Blister Copper: On December 5th, the average processing fee for blister copper in southern China was 1300 yuan/ton, the same as last week. In July 2025, the blister copper production was 1.0585 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 6.9996 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.76%. In October 2025, China imported 55,200 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 10.18%, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 634,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.01% [44]. - Domestic Copper Supply: From January to November 2025, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China increased by 1.2894 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects a month - on - month increase of 65,700 tons in December. From January to October 2025, China imported 2.8237 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6.14%, and exported 554,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 29.89% [50][53]. - Copper Products Operating Rate: On December 4th, the operating rate of copper rods decreased by 2.78 percentage points week - on - week to 66.41%, far lower than 81.94% in the same period last year. The operating rate of recycled copper rods declined again after a rebound. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable increased to 95.12%. In November, the operating rates of copper strip, copper foil, copper tube, and brass rod enterprises were 68.39%, 86.3%, 63.82%, and 50.18% respectively, with different month - on - month and year - on - year changes [55][59][64]. - Downstream Consumption: - Air - conditioning: In October 2025, the production and sales of domestic air - conditioners decreased year - on - year. The production and sales in December are expected to decline significantly compared to the same period last year, with the domestic sales plan decreasing by 29.9% year - on - year and the export plan decreasing by 11.4% year - on - year [74]. - Automobile: In October, the production and sales of automobiles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 33.1% and 32.7% respectively year - on - year, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 46.7% of the total sales of new vehicles [78]. - Power Grid Investment: From January to October 2025, China's power grid investment reached 482.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, with the growth rate continuing to decline compared to the 9.9% growth rate from January to September [81]. - Real Estate: From January to October 2025, the national commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year [86]. - Photovoltaic and Wind Power: From January to October 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 252.87GW, a year - on - year increase of 39.47%. The new wind power installed capacity from January to October 2025 was 70.01GW, a year - on - year increase of 52.86% [92]. - Global New Energy Vehicles: In October 2025, global new energy vehicle sales were 1.9117 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to October 2025, US new energy vehicle sales were 1.3846 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.53% [98].