格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20251208

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The long - position of precious metals is strong, but there may be a short - term adjustment need after continuous sharp rises, and long - positions should continue to hold [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 0.36% to $4227.7 per ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 2.28% to $58.8 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.15% at 958.72 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.67% to 13788 yuan per kilogram [1] - On December 5, the US dollar index fell slightly, closing at 98.98. COMEX gold fluctuated narrowly, and COMEX silver remained strong, hitting a new high and then falling slightly [2] Important Information - As of December 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.33 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1050.25 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is about 87% [1] - On the evening of December 5, Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bezant and Trade Representative Greer, discussing in - depth and constructively about future practical cooperation and properly resolving concerns in the economic and trade fields [1] - On December 5, it was announced that the US core PCE price index in September rose 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the expected and previous values (both 2.9%); it rose 0.2% month - on - month, consistent with market expectations and the previous value [1] - Central bank data shows that China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of November were reported at $33463.72 billion. China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the 13th consecutive month of gold purchases [1] Market Logic - The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, the lowest level since March 2023. The initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 were 191,000, the lowest in more than three years [1] - The US recruitment and departure rates decreased simultaneously, and the number of job vacancies decreased, indicating a "cold" state of weakened corporate expansion willingness and significantly slowed market liquidity [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December continued to rise above 80%, driving up precious metal prices. Silver reached a new high due to strong industrial demand, and the silver inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange has been falling for the past three months [1] Trading Strategy - The long - position of precious metals is strong, but there may be a short - term adjustment need after continuous sharp rises, and long - positions should continue to hold [2]