Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, the global financial market will witness two major policy events: the Fed's December interest rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference. The Fed's decision will impact global capital flows and risk appetite, while the Central Economic Work Conference will clarify China's economic policy framework and industrial development direction for 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to remain volatile. After the meeting content is clear, the positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cuts will resonate, and the market risk preference is expected to rise again [2] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (including the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) increased, with price increases of 46.00, 46.40, 45.20, and 46.20 respectively, and price increases of 1.02%, 1.03%, 1.01%, and 1.04%. The trading volumes were 84,754.00, 5,005.00, 29,046.00, and 6,014.00 respectively. The positions increased by 6,821.00, 2,041.00, 5,658.00, and 707.00 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts increased, with price increases of 32.00, 32.40, 32.20, and 32.80 respectively, and price increases of 1.08%, 1.10%, 1.09%, and 1.12%. The trading volumes were 38,569.00, 2,721.00, 12,268.00, and 3,123.00 respectively. The positions increased by 6,493.00, 1,333.00, 2,695.00, and 1,013.00 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts increased, with price increases of 107.60, 102.60, 103.80, and 105.40 respectively, and price increases of 1.54%, 1.48%, 1.53%, and 1.60%. The trading volumes were 83,349.00, 5,876.00, 33,919.00, and 8,827.00 respectively. The positions increased by 7,712.00, 1,722.00, 6,121.00, and 634.00 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased, with price increases of 115.80, 112.80, 109.60, and 107.00 respectively, and price increases of 1.61%, 1.58%, 1.57%, and 1.59%. The trading volumes were 146,937.00, 10,614.00, 47,651.00, and 15,250.00 respectively. The positions increased by 8,115.00, 3,280.00, 6,975.00, and 1,387.00 respectively [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of the inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were -17.40, -6.80, -59.40, and -77.20 respectively, compared with the previous values of -18.40, -8.40, -57.00, and -76.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes increased, with price increases of 37.97, 27.67, 85.03, and 93.83 respectively, and price increases of 0.84%, 0.93%, 1.21%, and 1.29%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 196.80, 44.60, 168.74, and 215.73 respectively, and the total trading amounts (in billions of RMB) were 4,121.47, 1,104.47, 2,751.08, and 3,528.06 respectively [1] - Industry Indexes: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, information technology, and telecommunications services sectors increased, with price increases of 2.07%, 1.16%, 0.44%, 0.30%, 0.65%, 1.33%, 0.14%, and 0.43% respectively. The energy and public utilities sectors decreased, with price decreases of 0.57% and 0.24% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The previous day's values of the futures - spot basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts (compared with their corresponding spot indexes) were higher than the values of the day before the previous day, indicating a narrowing of the basis [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small - and Medium - Cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index increased, with price increases of 0.70%, 1.08%, 0.68%, and 1.36% respectively [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index increased, with price increases of 0.58%, 2.33%, 0.19%, and 0.61% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will focus on promoting the stable growth of the industrial economy, comprehensively deepening reforms, and ensuring the security of key industrial chains and supply chains [2] - As of the end of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.3464 trillion US dollars, an increase of 0.09% compared with the end of October, and the central bank's gold reserves increased for the 13th consecutive month [2] - From January to November, the number of new disclosure of shareholding increase plans by Shanghai - listed companies was 210 times, with the upper limit of the planned shareholding increase amount reaching 64.984 billion RMB, a year - on - year increase of 25.43% [2] - In 2025, the issuance of Fund of Funds (FOF) boomed. As of December 7, 74 new public - offering FOFs were established, with a total issuance scale of 77.606 billion RMB, reaching a new high in the past four years [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Multiple rare - disease drugs were included in the 2025 medical insurance catalog and the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog, and five CAR - T drugs were included in the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog [2] - In October, the global semiconductor sales increased by 33% year - on - year to 71.3 billion US dollars, and the DRAM sales increased by 90% year - on - year, mainly driven by the demand for artificial intelligence [2] - The 2025 Cultured Diamond Industry Conference was held in Zhengzhou. Henan's annual output of cultured diamonds is nearly 25 million carats, but there is a lack of high - end differentiated brands. It is expected that by 2030, there will be more than 10 well - known Chinese cultured diamond brands and 1 - 2 international brands [2]
申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20251208
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-12-08 02:20