LLDPE：基差转弱，上游抛压继续释放

Report Summary 1. Core View - LLDPE futures prices continued to decline, with the basis in North China weakening again to a discount. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased recently. Due to the rebound of futures prices in the early stage of last week, upstream sellers reduced prices to sell goods, and the industry's willingness to hold goods was poor under the weakening demand, putting pressure on the basis. The US and Middle - East offers decreased, and shipments are expected to arrive in Q1 2026 [1]. - The raw material crude oil price fluctuated, the monomer segment rebounded slightly, and the supply profits of PE ethylene and ethane were compressed. The PE market was in a low - level oscillation. The downstream agricultural film demand weakened marginally, and the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of middle and downstream enterprises to hold goods weakened, and the upstream offered discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, resulting in a slight reduction in factory inventory and a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical gradually started production, and the current maintenance plan in December is neutral. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 2. Directory Summary 2.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2601 was 6674, a daily decline of 1.51%. The trading volume was 449,625, and the open interest increased by 7,056. The 01 - contract basis was - 44 (compared with - 56 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 68 (compared with - 53 the previous day) [1]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,630 yuan/ton, 6,870 yuan/ton, and 6,800 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day [1]. 2.2 Spot News - The futures market continued to decline, and the North China LL basis weakened again to a discount. The number of warehouse receipts decreased recently. Due to the previous futures rebound and upstream selling at reduced prices, the demand weakened marginally, and the industry's willingness to hold goods was poor, putting pressure on the basis. The Middle - East and US offers decreased, and shipments are expected to arrive in Q1 2026 [1]. 2.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material crude oil price fluctuated, the monomer segment rebounded slightly, compressing the supply profits of PE ethylene and ethane. The PE market oscillated at a low level. The downstream agricultural film demand weakened marginally, while the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of middle and downstream enterprises to hold goods weakened, and the upstream offered discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, resulting in a slight reduction in factory inventory and a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical gradually started production, and the current maintenance plan in December is neutral. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 2.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [3]