锌周报：宏观推波，供应助力锌价强劲反弹-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded. Macroeconomically, recent US employment and inflation data support the Fed's interest rate cut, and Trump's remarks on the next Fed Chairman candidate are also favorable for the future interest rate cut path. The US dollar is weak, which is beneficial to the price trend of risk assets. Domestically, as the Politburo meeting approaches, policy expectations are rising, market sentiment is positive, copper and tin prices are constantly hitting new highs, and zinc prices are following the rebound. Fundamentally, the supply contraction is prominent. In December, the processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc mines have accelerated their decline. The average processing fee for domestic mines has dropped to 2,000 yuan/metal ton, basically returning to the level at the beginning of the year. The profit space of smelters has been continuously compressed, and the phenomenon of production cuts and suspensions in the industry has increased. SMM data shows that the domestic refined zinc production in November was lower than expected, falling below 600,000 tons. It is expected that the production in December will decrease by 24,000 tons month-on-month, and the previous high supply pressure has been significantly relieved. At the same time, the spot premiums at home and abroad have strengthened, which also helps the futures price to run strongly. However, the consumption side is still in the traditional off-season, and the demand side has not formed an effective match. The operating rates of primary enterprises remain mediocre. Affected by the year-end rush to work and the completion of annual sales targets of some enterprises, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has slightly increased; the rising zinc price has suppressed enterprise production, and the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy enterprises has slightly decreased; the finished product inventory pressure of all-steel tire factories has increased, and some ceramic factories have cut or suspended production, so the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises has slightly decreased. The terminal consumption increment is limited, and the downstream enterprises' fear of high prices has increased, and their purchasing behavior has become more cautious. [3][10] - Overall, as the Fed's December interest rate meeting and domestic important meetings approach, the market risk preference is expected to remain warm. At the same time, the supply reduction boosts, and the zinc price may continue to run strongly following the non-ferrous metal sector. However, attention should also be paid to the strengthening of the negative feedback effect on the consumption side after the continuous rebound of the zinc price, which will disrupt the rebound rhythm and space. Temporarily pay attention to the pressure near the 40-month moving average above. [4][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | November 28 | December 5 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,425 | 23,305 | 880 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 3,051 | 3,098.5 | 47.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai-London Ratio | 7.35 | 7.52 | 0.17 | | | SHFE Inventory | 95,916 | 91,916 | -4,000 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 51,750 | 55,375 | 3,625 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 148,000 | 140,300 | -7,700 | Tons | | Spot Premium | 50 | 70 | 20 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract ZN2601 of Shanghai zinc futures showed a rebound trend. After breaking through the pressure level of 23,000 yuan/ton, the upward momentum slowed down slightly, and finally closed at 22,305 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.92%. On Friday night, it opened lower and fluctuated narrowly. The center of gravity of LME zinc moved up, hitting a new high of the year at 3,125 US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 3,098.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%. [6] - In the spot market, as of December 5, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 23,165 and 23,375 yuan/ton, with a premium of 200 - 220 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract. In the Ningbo market, the transaction price of the mainstream brand 0 zinc was around 23,155 - 23,335 yuan/ton, with a premium of 175 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract and a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,945 and 23,095 yuan/ton, with a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 22,930 and 23,170 yuan/ton. The ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 40 to a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract, and the Tianjin market was at a discount of about 130 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market, and the price difference between Shanghai and Tianjin continued to widen. Generally speaking, affected by the smelter maintenance, the improvement of the tight supply in the market was limited. Traders raised the spot premium quotes, but the downstream's fear of high prices increased, and their purchasing preference was for the low-priced factory-picked goods. The spot transactions were mainly between traders. [7] - In terms of inventory, as of December 5, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 55,375 tons, an increase of 3,625 tons week-on-week. The SHFE inventory was 91,916 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared with last week. As of December 4, the social inventory was 140,300 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared with Monday and a decrease of 7,700 tons compared with last Thursday. Among them, due to the production cuts of smelters, the arrivals in Guangdong decreased. Coupled with the stable downstream demand and the terminal's rigid demand for replenishment, and the large price difference between South China and East China, some South China goods flowed into East China, resulting in a significant reduction in the inventory in Guangdong, while the inventory in Tianjin changed little. [8] - Macroeconomically, the US ISM manufacturing PMI index in November decreased by 0.5 points to 48.2, remaining below the boom-bust line of 50 for nine consecutive months, hitting the largest contraction in four months. The new orders index dropped to the fastest contraction speed since July. The ISM services PMI index rose to 52.6, a nine-month high, with an expected value of 52.1. The ADP employment data showed that private enterprises in the US reduced 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, far lower than the market expectation of an increase of 10,000. The data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that as of the week ending November 29 (including the Thanksgiving holiday), the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 220,000 and the previous value of 216,000. The number of continued jobless claims decreased slightly by 4,000 to 1.939 million. However, this indicator has remained at a high level in recent years, indicating that it is more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. The US PCE price index in September recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, and the year-on-year increase rose slightly from 2.7% in August to 2.8%; the core PCE annual rate after excluding the volatile food and energy prices dropped from 2.9% in August to 2.8%. [8][9] 3.3 Industry News - SMM data shows that as of the week ending December 5, the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton month-on-month to 1,850 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported zinc concentrates decreased by 3.5 US dollars/dry ton month-on-month to 57.75 US dollars/dry ton. [12] - According to foreign media on November 26, the national mining group (SONAREM) of a certain country held a coordination meeting, emphasizing that the Bejaia zinc-lead mine project must start production as planned, with a planned annual output of 170,000 tons of zinc concentrates and 30,000 tons of lead concentrates. [12] - SMM reported that the refined zinc production in November was 595,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.56% and a year-on-year increase of 16.75%. The cumulative production from January to November was 6.281 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%, lower than the expected value. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in December will be 570,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 24,300 tons or 4.08% and a year-on-year increase of 10.49%. The cumulative annual production will be 6.852 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%. [12] 3.4 Related Charts The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio chart, the spot premium and discount chart, the LME premium and discount chart, the inventory charts of SHFE, LME, social, and bonded areas, the domestic and foreign zinc mine processing fee chart, the zinc mine import profit and loss chart, the domestic refined zinc production chart, the smelter profit chart, the refined zinc net import chart, and the downstream primary enterprise operating rate chart. [13][15][17][20][22][25]