豆粕周报：等待USDA报告指引，连粕延续震荡-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - Last week, the CBOT January soybean contract fell 32 to close at 1105.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.81%; the January soybean meal contract fell 8 to close at 3036 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.26%; the spot price of soybean meal in South China remained flat at 3000 yuan per ton; the January rapeseed meal contract fell 55 to close at 2397 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.24%; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Guangxi fell 70 to 2480 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.75% [2][5]. - There is a lack of news on China's purchase of US soybeans. The US claims that China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by the end of February, but the current progress is slow and it is doubtful whether this target can be achieved. The external market lacks support and oscillates downward. Domestic soybean meal is suppressed by high inventory, while the import cost is still in a loss, providing support at the cost end. The Dalian soybean meal futures generally oscillate [2][5]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics reported that the rapeseed production was 21.8 million tons, which is bearish. With abundant global supply, ICE rapeseed prices have fallen, and rapeseed meal is relatively weak. The current weather conditions in South America are generally favorable, and the crop outlook is positive. On Friday, private exporters reported the sale of 462,000 tons of soybeans to China. Attention should be paid to the progress of US soybean exports, and we are waiting for the release of the December USDA report. The domestic soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the import cost provides support. It is expected that the short - term oscillation of Dalian soybean meal futures will continue [2][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | December 5th | November 28th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybeans | 1105.25 | 1137.25 | -32.00 | -2.81% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 481.00 | 500.00 | -19.00 | -3.80% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 498.00 | 502.00 | -4.00 | -0.80% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 70.75 | 64.34 | 6.41 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3036.00 | 3044.00 | -8.00 | -0.26% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2397.00 | 2452.00 | -55.00 | -2.24% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 639.00 | 592.00 | 47.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3040.00 | 3020.00 | 20.00 | 0.66% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3000.00 | 3000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | -36.00 | -44.00 | 8.00 | | Yuan per ton | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week ending October 30, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 1.248 million tons, compared with 1.45 million tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 17.2 million tons, with a sales progress of 38.6%, compared with 55.5% in the same period last year. China started to purchase US soybeans this week, with a purchase volume of 232,000 tons [6]. - As of the week ending November 21, 2025, the gross profit of US soybean crushing (the price difference between soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal) was 2.5 US dollars per bushel, compared with 2.81 US dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 324 US dollars per short ton, compared with 338 US dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 51.99 cents per pound, compared with 51.58 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.16 US dollars per bushel, compared with 11.15 US dollars per bushel in the previous week [6]. - According to Conab, as of the week ending November 29, 2025, the planting rate of soybeans in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 86%, compared with 78% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 84.4%. According to AgRural, as of the week ending November 27, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil for the 2025/26 season had reached the expected 89%, compared with 81% in the previous week and 91% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the soybean export volume in December is expected to be 2.81 million tons, compared with 1.47 million tons in the same period last year [7]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that as of the week ending November 26, 2025, the sowing progress of soybeans in Argentina was 44.7%, compared with 36% in the previous week and 53.8% in the same period last year [7]. - The weather forecast for South American production areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the Brazilian soybean production area is expected to be 150 mm, higher than the normal level, and the overall weather conditions are good. The precipitation in Argentina will be relatively dry in the next two weeks, which is conducive to sowing. Continuous attention should be paid to the weather changes in this area [7]. - As of the week ending November 28, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, an increase of 189,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.3661 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, an increase of 51,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 368,700 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 3.881 million tons, a decrease of 714,100 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 107,000 tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 9.576 million tons, an increase of 151,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.0825 million tons from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending December 5, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 140,280 tons, including 82,980 tons of spot trading and 57,300 tons of forward trading. The daily average total trading volume in the previous week was 124,340 tons; the daily average pick - up volume of soybean meal was 184,300 tons, compared with 188,000 tons in the previous week; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.0558 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons in the previous week; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 8.49 days, compared with 8.17 days in the previous week [8]. Industry News - StoneX estimated that the soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will be 177.2 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from its November forecast. However, if this forecast comes true, it will still be a record - high soybean output in Brazil. StoneX said that although the planting area has slightly expanded, this adjustment reflects the decline in the soybean production potential in the main producing states of Mato Grosso and Goias in Brazil [10]. - Patria Agronegocios estimated that the soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will reach 171.89 million tons, a 0.2% increase from the mid - November forecast. The expected output will increase by 1.4% compared with the 2024/25 season. Patria reported that the soybean sowing area in Brazil is expected to reach 48.58 million hectares (120 million acres), a 0.9% increase from the previous forecast and higher than the 47.69 million hectares in the previous year [10]. - Imea estimated that the soybean production in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season will be 47.18 million tons, remaining stable compared with the November report forecast. The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from November 24th to November 28th was 492.95 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 451.85 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous week. During the same week, the price of soybean meal in the state was 1,615.80 Brazilian reals per ton, and the price of soybean oil was 6,290.33 Brazilian reals per ton [11]. - According to the European Commission, as of November 30, the palm oil import volume of the EU in the 2025/26 season was 1.17 million tons, compared with 1.42 million tons last year. The soybean import volume was 4.97 million tons, compared with 5.75 million tons last year. The soybean meal import volume was 7.46 million tons, compared with 8.33 million tons last year. The rapeseed import volume was 1.58 million tons, compared with 2.61 million tons last year [11]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics will release the yield forecast report of field crops for the 2025/26 market season based on farmer surveys on December 4. Before that, the average forecast of interviewed analysts was that the rapeseed production in Canada for the 2025/26 season would be 21.25 million tons, higher than the 20.03 million tons announced by the Bureau in September [11]. - The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) raised the forecast of Australia's rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season by 800,000 tons to 7.2 million tons, higher than the 6.4 million tons in the previous year and 50% higher than the ten - year average [12]. - According to foreign media reports, on December 3, an institution released a commodity research report showing that the soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 46.9 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a forecast range between 45.8 million and 48.1 million tons. However, the sowing at the beginning of the season has been continuously delayed, the soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt has declined, and the long - term weather outlook is bleak, which deserves attention [12]. - The main field crop yield report released by the Canadian Bureau of Statistics showed that the rapeseed yield per unit area reached a record high. Although the harvested area of rapeseed reported by farmers in 2025 decreased, the timely precipitation in the later season in western Canada helped push the rapeseed yield per unit area in the three prairie provinces to or close to the historical highest level, thus increasing the national yield per unit area to 44.7 bushels per acre. The national rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons, exceeding the previous production record set in 2017 [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the trend of the soybean meal main contract, the spot price of soybean meal in different regions, the spread between January and May contracts of soybean meal, the net position of managed funds in CBOT, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the crushing profit of US oil mills, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unfulfilled contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [13][16][18]