华龙期货铁矿周报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of iron ore fluctuated around $106 per ton, with an average price of $106.3 per ton in December. Pig iron production continued to decline, and port iron ore inventories increased. With the successful shipment of the first batch of iron ore from Simandou and Vale's announcement of a 10 million - ton year - on - year increase in its iron ore production target for fiscal year 2026, the current outlook for iron ore is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 0.13%. Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 153.0081 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9069 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1845 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1213 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.31 percentage points; the daily average pig iron production was 2.323 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0238 million tons [4] 3.2 Important Market Information - According to China Iron and Steel Association data, in late November, key steel enterprises produced 18.18 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.818 million tons, a daily output decrease of 6.4% week - on - week. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 6.4% week - on - week; the daily output of pig iron was 2.09 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% week - on - week; and the daily output of steel products was 4.09 million tons, an increase of 3.2% week - on - week. The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.33 million tons, a decrease of 0.38 million tons or 4.4% week - on - week. The inventory has been decreasing continuously, and the decline has widened [15] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of October 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 111.309 million tons, a decrease of 5.021 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $100.56 per ton, an increase of $3.61 per ton from the previous month. As of November 2025, the iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 61.849 million tons, a decrease of 4.993 million tons from the previous month; the iron ore shipment volume from Brazil was 30.963 million tons, an increase of 1.708 million tons from the first half of the month [21][22] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased, and other demand - related indicators such as the profitability rate of 247 steel mills and the Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume are mentioned but no specific summarized data is provided in this output [23][29] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 153.0081 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9069 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1845 million tons, a decrease of 0.1213 million tons; the number of ships at ports was 109, a decrease of 3. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 159.9111 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8989 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3423 million tons, a decrease of 0.0983 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.31 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.25%; the steel mill profitability rate was 36.36%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.42%; the daily average pig iron production was 2.323 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0238 million tons [32] 3.6 Market Outlook - The current outlook for iron ore is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][33] 3.7 Operation Strategies - Single - side: Go short lightly on rallies; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [6][34]