螺纹热卷早报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of finished steel products are both in a downward phase in the off - season. The investment - end data remains weak and domestic demand is poor. However, exports maintain strong resilience with the advantage of trading at a lower price for higher volume. Currently in the production - reduction stage, the output of rebar has contracted rapidly, and the supply - demand contradiction has been repaired. The output of hot - rolled coils is still relatively high, inventory reduction is difficult, and its fundamentals are weaker than rebar. During the recent production - reduction period, the profit per ton of steel may be repaired. It is recommended to operate with caution [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Rebar Futures: On December 5, 2025, RB2605 closed at 3157, down 18 from the previous day; RB2610 closed at 3192, down 17; RB2601 closed at 3137, down 11. The 05 - 10 spread of rebar was - 35, down 1. The 10 - 01 spread of rebar was - 6. The 05 - contract rebar disk profit was 16, up 17; the 10 - contract rebar disk profit was 62, up 16; the 01 - contract rebar disk profit was 36, up 34 [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: On December 5, 2025, HC2605 closed at 3320, down 15 from the previous day; HC2610 closed at 3329, down 15; HC2601 closed at 3312, down 11. The 05 - 10 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 9, up 3. The 10 - 01 spread of hot - rolled coil was 17, down 4. The HC05 - RB05 spread was 163, up 6; the HC10 - RB10 spread was 137, up 2; the HC01 - RB01 spread was 175, unchanged. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 71, up 23; the 10 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 51, up 18; the 01 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 39, up 34 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar Spot: On December 5, 2025, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3260 yuan, down 10 from the previous day; Nanjing Xicheng rebar was 3420 yuan, unchanged; Shandong Shiheng rebar was 3320 yuan, down 10; Tangshan Tanggang rebar was 3150 yuan, unchanged. The cheapest delivery product was equivalent to 3240 yuan, with 05 - contract basis of 83, 10 - contract basis of 48, and 01 - contract basis of 103 [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil Spot: On December 5, 2025, the price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan, unchanged; Lecong Rigang hot - rolled coil was 3320 yuan, down 10; Shanghai Rigang hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan, down 10. The cheapest delivery product was 3300 yuan, with 05 - contract basis of - 20, 10 - contract basis of - 29, and 01 - contract basis of - 12 [2] 3.3 Spot Price Difference and Profit - Rebar Price Difference and Profit: The price difference between Shanghai rebar and Beijing rebar was 90, unchanged; between Shanghai rebar and Jinan rebar was - 50, up 10; between Shanghai rebar and Guangzhou rebar was - 250, down 10. The profit of adjusting billet to roll steel was 40, unchanged. The profit of East China rebar was 252, up 1. The profit of East China electric - arc furnace in flat period was - 100, down 170; in valley period was 64, down 170 [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil Price Difference and Profit: The price difference between Shanghai hot - rolled coil and Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 60, down 10; between Shanghai hot - rolled coil and Lecong hot - rolled coil was - 20, unchanged; between Shanghai hot - rolled coil and Shanghai rebar was 0, down 10. The profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coil was - 108, up 3. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil was 173, up 1 [2] 3.4 Night Session Review - Futures: RB2601 closed at 3120, RB2605 closed at 3132, HC2601 closed at 3301, HC2605 closed at 3304. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar was - 12 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 3 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in January contract was 181 yuan, and in May contract was 172 yuan. Spot: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3260 (- 10) yuan; the price of Shanghai Bengang hot - rolled coil was 3300 (- 10) yuan [2] 3.5 Important Information - Last week, steel mills in 15 provinces had production line maintenance and resumption. There were 25 maintenance production lines, a month - on - month increase of 14, and 2 resumption production lines, a month - on - month decrease of 4. The production affected by production line maintenance was 3.78 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.25 tons. It is expected that the production affected by production line maintenance this week will be 44.3 tons [2] - Many places launched emergency responses for heavy pollution weather. Luoyang launched an orange early - warning response for heavy pollution weather at 17:00 on December 7; Changsha launched a first - level response measure for heavy pollution weather at 20:00 on December 7. Cangzhou, Handan, Xingtai, and Xi'an launched a first - level emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 12:00 on December 8 [2] - From December 1 - 5, 2025, the national average price of rebar was 3326 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. On the supply side, the weekly output of rebar was 189.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.14%, and the inventory was 503.81 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.21%. On the demand side, the consumption was 216.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81% [2] - On December 5, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 86.40 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%; the transaction volume of construction steel products of 237 mainstream traders was 8.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.1% [2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills in the country was 53.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.43 percentage points; the average operating rate was 67.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2] 3.6 Long - Short Logic - Over the weekend, the ex - factory price of some common carbon billets in Tangshan, Hebei decreased by 20 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan. The prices of construction steel in major domestic markets were stable with slight declines, and trading was light. The supply and demand of finished steel products are in a downward phase in the off - season, investment - end data is weak, and domestic demand is poor. Exports maintain strong resilience with the price - for - volume advantage. Currently in the production - reduction stage, rebar output has contracted rapidly and supply - demand contradiction has been repaired. Hot - rolled coil output is still relatively high, inventory reduction is difficult, and fundamentals are weaker than rebar. During the production - reduction period, the profit per ton of steel may be repaired [2] 3.7 Trading Strategy - Not clearly stated in the report