Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [4][34] Summary by Related Sections 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures showed a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend, ranging from around 17,010 yuan/ton to about 17,380 yuan/ton [8] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - In November, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the business climate. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, the production index was at the critical point, and the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were all below the critical point [12] 3. Spot Analysis - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 17,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,255 yuan/ton, 17,300 yuan/ton, and 17,270 yuan/ton respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the premium or discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 200 yuan/metal ton, 400 yuan/metal ton, and 320 yuan/metal ton respectively. The average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 260 yuan/metal ton. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 645,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Seasonally, the current output was at an average level compared to the past five years [22] 5. Inventory Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 34,735 tons, a decrease of 3,064 tons from the previous week. As of December 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 243,550 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 48.06% [28] 6. Fundamental Analysis - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the new orders index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing market demand. Lead processing fees continued to decline slowly and remained at a low level. In October, lead production was at a moderate level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline and was at a moderate level in recent years, while LME lead inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years [33] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [34]
铅周报：沪铅或以震荡偏强趋势运行-20251208
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-12-08 02:16