利率周报（2025.12.01-2025.12.07）：年末债市行情可期-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market [2][4][67][68] 2. Report's Core View - Economic downward pressure may rise, and there is a high possibility of a future policy interest rate cut. The CPI rebounded to positive territory year-on-year in October, and the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed. However, the economic growth pressure remains high, with significant declines in the year-on-year growth rates of investment and consumption. Since 2018, the probability of making profits in the bond market in December has been high. The report continues to clearly be bullish on the bond market [2][67] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - On December 5, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted a 100 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days), and another 6 - month - term operation is expected within the month [4][10] - The central bank governor stated in an article that the central bank aims to maintain currency value stability and financial stability. The monetary policy system and the macro - prudential management system are two fundamental tools for macro - management [4][14] - In December 2025, the Bank of Japan signaled a clear interest rate hike, with an 85% probability of raising the policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% at its monthly monetary policy meeting [4][14] 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of November 30, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 19.3% year - on - year. As of December 5, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days increased by 290.7% year - on - year. As of November 21, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 25.0% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 48.2% year - on - year [9][15][20] 3.2.2 Transportation - As of November 30, the container throughput of ports increased by 16.8% year - on - year, the postal express pick - up volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, the postal express delivery volume increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the railway freight volume increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 3.1% year - on - year. As of December 5, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.6% year - on - year [9][23][26] 3.2.3 Operating Rates - As of December 3, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. As of December 4, the average operating rate of asphalt decreased by 2.0 percentage points year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 6.5 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points year - on - year. As of December 5, the average operating rate of PX was 88.5%, and the average operating rate of PTA was 74.1% [9][28][30] 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of December 5, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 29.9% year - on - year. As of November 28, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 24.2% year - on - year [9][33][36] 3.2.5 Prices - As of December 5, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 24.2% year - on - year and 2.1% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of vegetables increased by 17.7% year - on - year and 2.1% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits increased by 2.4% year - on - year and 3.8% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 0.7% year - on - year and increased by 4.4% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 13.9% year - on - year and 2.2% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 5.4% year - on - year and increased by 2.5% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of iron ore increased by 0.1% year - on - year and 1.4% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of glass decreased by 15.3% year - on - year and 1.2% compared with 4 weeks ago [9][40][44] 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On December 5, overnight Shibor decreased by 0.60 BP compared with December 1; R001 increased by 0.06 BP, R007 increased by 0.32 BP; DR001 decreased by 0.59 BP, DR007 decreased by 2.00 BP; IBO001 decreased by 0.53 BP, IBO007 decreased by 4.80 BP. Most government bond yields increased. On December 5, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.40%, 1.63%, 1.85%, and 2.26% respectively, compared with November 28, they changed by - 0.1 BP, + 1.6 BP, + 0.6 BP, and + 7.3 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.63%, 1.84%, 2.01%, and 2.40% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 0.8 BP, 3.2 BP, 3.5 BP, and 7.2 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.48%, 1.79%, and 2.06% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 2.8 BP, 4.7 BP, and 3.5 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.61%, 1.66%, 1.63%, and 1.69% respectively, compared with November 28, they changed by + 16.0 BP, + 1.0 BP, + 16.0 BP, and remained unchanged respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.14%, 1.95%, 4.48%, and 2.86% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 12 BP, 14 BP, 1 BP, and 9 BP respectively. On December 5, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.07, compared with November 28, they decreased by 40 and 88 pips respectively [50][53][60] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is clearly bullish on the bond market. Banks' self - operations focus on government bonds within 10 years, insurance companies' asset allocation and trading desks focus on 30 - year bonds, bond funds focus on 5 - year capital bonds, and bank wealth management products focus on credit bonds below 3 years. From the domestic fundamental perspective, domestic economic data is under pressure, housing prices have further declined, and the current short - term interest rate is too high, so the necessity of a policy interest rate cut has significantly increased. From the external environment, the Fed has started an interest rate cut cycle and may cut interest rates by another 25 BP within the year. Currently, long - term bond yields have reached the highest point of the year, and the probability of making profits is high under the dual influence of domestic and external factors [4][67][68]