非美地区电解铜供需预期趋紧支撑铜价：沪铜日评20251208-20251208

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Review 20251208: Tightening Supply - Demand Expectations of Electrolytic Copper in Non - US Regions Support Copper Prices" [2] Group 2: Market Data Shanghai Copper Futures - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 92,780, up 1,800 from the previous day; trading volume was 188,062 lots, down 37,269; open interest was 236,494 lots, up 1,924; inventory was 30,936 tons, down 1,203; the basis was - 1,195, down 1,460 [3] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 91,585, up 340; the average opening discount of SMM flat - water copper was 110, down 10; the average opening premium of SMM premium copper was 240, unchanged [3] London Copper - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,665, up 231 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 23.05, down 27.39; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 279, up 44.49; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9537, down 0.00 [3] COMEX Copper - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.454, up 0.06 from the previous day; the total inventory was 436,853 tons, up 2,570 [3] Group 3: Core View - Due to production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the China copper concentrate import index remains negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased compared to the previous month, on the demand side, downstream buyers make rigid - need purchases due to high copper prices. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange and COMEX has increased. Considering the expected future interest - rate cuts by the Fed, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish [3] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously, pay attention to the support levels of 83,000 - 85,000 and the resistance levels of 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 10,100 - 10,500 and the resistance level of 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; and the support level of 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3]