尿素早评：短期注意回调风险，仍以逢低做多为主-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the callback risk, as the recent decline in coal prices has brought some callback pressure to the coal - chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the strategy should focus on buying on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of over - supply and demand, but the urea price is supported at low levels, and its price bottom may gradually become clear [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Futures Prices: On December 5th compared to December 4th, UR01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.89%) to 1673 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 9 yuan/ton (-0.52%) to 1736 yuan/ton, and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.62%) to 1752 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): In Shandong, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) to 1720 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.64%) to 1560 yuan/ton; in Henan and Hebei, there was no change; in Northeast China, there was no change; in Jiangsu, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.59%) to 1710 yuan/ton [1] - Upstream Costs: The anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream Prices: The compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton (0.97%) to 3130 yuan/ton, and in Henan, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.38%) to 2650 yuan/ton. The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1696 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1696 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1672 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1682 yuan/ton, and the position was 200353 lots [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, focus on buying on dips [1]