橡胶周报：供需偏松库存累库，盘面或将偏弱震荡-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to experience weak and volatile trading in the short term. The market sentiment is boosted by the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, but there is an expectation of looser supply, weakening cost support, good but weakening terminal consumption, and continuous seasonal inventory accumulation in the domestic market [8][9][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of natural rubber futures changed from RU2601 to RU2605, with prices ranging from 14,910 to 15,475 yuan/ton, showing a weak and volatile trend with a significant overall decline. As of the close on December 5, 2025, the main contract closed at 15,065 yuan/ton, down 380 points or 2.46% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 18,050 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [20]. - The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,060 US dollars/ton as of December 5, 2025, down 60 US dollars/ton from the previous week [24]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded compared to the previous week. As of December 5, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [26]. - The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both significantly declined compared to the previous week as of December 5, 2025 [29]. Important Market Information - US economic data: In November, the "small non - farm" employment in the US reached the largest decline in two and a half years, the initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased, the ISM manufacturing PMI declined, the ISM services PMI rose, and there were significant changes in employment and lay - off data [30][31]. - Global economic forecasts: The OECD expects global economic growth rates of 3.2% and 2.9% in the next two years, while the UNCTAD expects the global economic growth to slow down to 2.6% in 2025 [31][32]. - Chinese economic data: In November, China's manufacturing PMI rose slightly, non - manufacturing PMI declined, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined. There were also changes in the real estate market, consumer goods, and the automotive market [33][34][35]. Supply - side Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 1.071 million tons, a 3.45% increase from the previous month. The output of Thailand and China decreased slightly, while that of Malaysia, India, and Vietnam increased slightly [42]. - As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 782,000 tons, a 12.5% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative output was 7.387 million tons, a 10.9% year - on - year increase [45][48]. - As of October 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,300 tons, a 12.26% month - on - month decrease [51]. Demand - side Situation - As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 70.92%, up 1.73% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.5%, up 0.17% from the previous week [54]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's automobile monthly output was 3.3587 million vehicles, a 12.09% year - on - year and 2.53% month - on - month increase; monthly sales were 3.3221 million vehicles, an 8.82% year - on - year and 2.97% month - on - month increase [58][61]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's heavy - truck monthly sales were 106,199 vehicles, a 60.02% year - on - year and 0.58% month - on - month increase [66]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 97.951 million pieces, a 2.5% year - on - year decrease; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, an 8.11% month - on - month decrease [69][74]. Inventory - side Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the SHFE was 45,530 tons, an increase of 4,130 tons from the previous week. - As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.102 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous month. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5%, and that of light - colored rubber increased by 1.3%. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 481,600 tons, a 2.71% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 0.69%, and the general trade inventory increased by 3.07% [81]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber production areas are still in the peak supply season. With the weakening of weather disturbances in Vietnam and Thailand, the supply of raw materials is expected to increase. The domestic production areas will enter the non - production season, and the supply elasticity will weaken, with relatively firm raw material rubber prices and cost support for rubber. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased by 17.2% year - on - year [83]. - Demand: The operating rates of tire enterprises increased slightly, but the overall downstream demand increment was limited, and enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, which could not strongly support the upstream rubber prices. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and heavy - truck sales in November increased significantly year - on - year. The export volume of rubber tires in the first 10 months increased slightly year - on - year. As the weather turns cold, the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market is expected to weaken [84][85]. - Inventory: The SHFE inventory increased slightly last week, and the social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber continued to rise, with an increasing inventory accumulation rate [84][85]. Viewpoints and Operation Strategies - This week's view: The main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to experience weak and volatile trading in the short term. - Operation strategies: For single - side trading, consider shorting at high prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 01 - 05 reverse spread opportunity; for options, temporarily wait and see [10][88][89].