中原期货晨会纪要-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic environment shows multiple changes, including adjustments to the medical insurance drug catalog, research on "15th Five - Year Plan" industrial policies, stable growth of foreign exchange reserves and continuous increase in gold reserves, and a significant increase in global semiconductor sales. In the market, different varieties in the agricultural, energy - chemical, industrial metal, and option - finance sectors have different trends and investment outlooks [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chemicals - On December 8, 2025, among the domestic chemical products, the prices of 20 - number rubber, (PTA), asphalt, styrene, glass, crude oil, fuel oil, soda ash, LPG, caustic soda, and ЬХ increased, with styrene having the largest increase of 0.946%. The prices of coking coal, coke, natural rubber, plastic, polypropylene PP, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, and pulp decreased, with coking coal having the largest decrease of 3.158% [6]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security issued the drug catalogs, with 114 new drugs added to the medical insurance catalog and 19 drugs included in the first - edition commercial insurance innovative drug catalog. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will focus on promoting industrial economic growth and reform. As of the end of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.3464 trillion US dollars, and the central bank's gold reserve increased for the 13th consecutive month. In October, global semiconductor sales increased by 33% year - on - year. The 2025 Cultivated Diamond Industry Conference was held in Zhengzhou. The US President ordered an investigation into the food supply chain [9][10][11]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures: On December 5, the price was slightly up, and the market was in a stalemate between supply and demand. It is expected to consolidate in the short term, with resistance at around 8,120 yuan and support at 8,044 yuan [13]. - Sugar futures: On December 5, the price was down. The supply pressure was high, and the international market was also in a loose supply situation. The short - term support is around 5,200 yuan/ton [13]. - Corn futures: On December 5, the price was up, with tight supply and strong demand. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high, with support at around 2,280 yuan [13]. - Live pig futures: The spot price was weak last week, with oversupply in the short term. The futures are expected to consolidate at a low level and wait for demand support [13][15]. - Egg futures: The spot price was stable last week. It is expected that the futures will rebound at a low level next week, but there is still pressure from premium [15]. - Cotton futures: On December 5, the price was slightly down. The supply and demand were both uncertain, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [15]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemical Products - Urea: The situation is the same as that of live pigs, with oversupply in the short term and the futures expected to consolidate at a low level [14][15]. - Caustic soda: The supply in Shandong is high, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to continue to decline. The 2601 contract should be treated with a bearish view [15][17]. - Coking coal: The production increase is limited, the trading enthusiasm is low, and it is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [17][18]. - Logs: The supply is tight, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 760 - 800 yuan [17]. - Pulp: The supply has support, the demand is weak, and the price has fallen to the middle - lower part of the range. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. - Offset printing paper: The price has broken through the previous range, and a bearish view is recommended, with support at 4,000 yuan [17][18]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has heated up again, and copper and aluminum are running at a high level. Pay attention to macro - risks [18]. - Alumina: The supply is in excess, the 2601 contract is running at a low level, and pay attention to factors such as bauxite [18]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The situation is the same as that of coking coal, with short - term pressure and weak fluctuations [18]. - Ferroalloys: At the end of the year, the supply and demand of ferroalloys are both weak. The price fluctuates weakly following the black series, and the idea of hedging on rebounds in the industry remains unchanged [18][20]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is expected to decrease, and a short - term bearish view is taken, with support at 90,000 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3.4 Option - Finance - Stock index options: The A - share market showed a general upward trend on December 5. Trend investors can pay attention to the opportunity of arbitrage between varieties, and volatility investors can buy the straddle strategy to go long on volatility [22]. - Stock index: The rebound of the rising trilogy is about to start. After the Fed's interest rate decision is announced, the market will enter the event - driven stage. It is recommended to pay attention to the IC index, as well as the IF index of pro - cyclical and large - cap stocks [24][25].