供需双减，短期承压：中辉期货双焦周报-20251208

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the weekly situation of coking coal and coke, titled "Zhonghui Futures Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Both Decline, Short - term Pressure" [1] - The report is issued by Zhonghui Black Research Team of Zhonghui Futures Co., Ltd., with the report date of December 05, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Summary - This week, black commodities were mainly involved in position - shifting and contract - changing. Coal and coke prices rebounded from low levels and then continued to weaken, while steel and ore showed relatively strong performance. Domestic coal production decreased again on a week - on - week basis, and some coal mines started self - production cuts as their annual production tasks were about to be completed. Downstream, hot metal production decreased again on a week - on - week basis, similar to the levels of the same period in the past two years. There are many steel mill overhauls in December, and there is still some room for the decline of hot metal in the future [4] Group 3: Outlook - Coking coal is currently in a stage of both supply and demand decline. In December, coal mines are not only affected by external factors such as safety inspections but also have the driving force for self - production cuts. It is expected that the short - term supply will continue to remain at a low level, and the demand still needs to pay attention to the decline of hot metal in the future. This week, the main contract of coking coal was switched to the 2605 contract. Considering that the current price has reached the lower edge of the range again and important domestic meetings are coming, it is not advisable to short too much in the short term. For strategies, the previous high - price short positions can be held, and new positions should maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] Group 4: Coking Coal Market Coking Coal Warehouse - receipt Cost - The report provides the spot prices and warehouse - receipt costs of different coking coal varieties in different locations on specific dates, such as the spot price of Meng 5 in Tangshan on December 05, 2025, is 1390 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - receipt cost is 1163 yuan/ton [11] Basis - The 01 basis of coking coal has strengthened to a high level in the same period. The 1 - month contract has a basis of 241, a week - on - week change of - 143, a basis rate of 20.28%, a one - month average of 245, and an over - seasonality of - 7 [12][14] Supply - Mine: This week, the average daily output of raw coal from 523 mines was 190.42 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92 tons; the average daily output of clean coal was 75.37 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.04 tons [23] - Coal Washery: The average daily output of sample coal washeries was 27.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 36.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21% [26] Import - From January to October, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 4.8% year - on - year. In October, the import volume of Mongolian coal decreased by 10.6% month - on - month and increased by 36.4% year - on - year [27][30] Auction Data - The coking coal auction data shows that the listing volume in the week of November 28, 2025, was 185.14 tons, a decrease of 28.14 tons compared with the week of November 21, 2025; the成交 rate was 53.28%, a decrease of 5.72 percentage points; the non - transaction rate was 46.72%, an increase of 5.72 percentage points [33] Group 5: Coke Market Coking Profit - The coking profit in different regions has decreased on a week - on - week basis. For example, the national coking profit on December 04, 2025, was 30, a decrease of 16 compared with November 27, 2025 [44] Basis - The basis of coke contracts shows different changes. For example, the 1 - month contract has a basis of - 47, a week - on - week change of - 34, a basis rate of - 3.19%, a one - month average of - 34, and an over - seasonality of - 59 [49] Supply and Demand - The report also mentions the supply, demand, total inventory, inventory distribution, registered warehouse receipts, and futures positions of coke, but specific data and analysis are presented in different parts of the report [52][54][56][63][65] Inventory Distribution - As of December 05, 2025, the steel mill inventory was 625.25 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.50%; the independent coking enterprise inventory was 76.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.68 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10.60%; the port inventory was 181.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.1 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.79% [62]