宏观向上，LME铜注销比猛增，沪铜预计仍强：铜周报20251207-20251208

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251207: Macro Upward, Sharp Increase in LME Copper Cancellation Ratio, Shanghai Copper Expected to Remain Strong [1] Core Viewpoint - With the macroeconomic upward trend and a sharp increase in the LME copper cancellation ratio, Shanghai copper is expected to remain strong [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot circulation sources are tight, and the copper spot premium has risen [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first rose and then fell, showing a week - on - week weakening [12] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.11/ton week - on - week to - $42.86/ton, still at a low level [14] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 750,200 tons [17] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper strengthened week - on - week [19] - China's electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [21] - The overseas market is strong, the copper export window is open, and some smelters are actively preparing for exports [23] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory both continued to decrease week - on - week [25] - LME copper inventory is still increasing but the cancellation ratio has soared, while COMEX inventory continues to increase [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline week - on - week. The breakthrough of the market to a record high significantly suppressed the consumption of refined copper rods [28] - From November 1st to 30th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 7% year - on - year and 6% compared with the same period last month [30] - The production of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to continue to decline [33] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] Macroeconomic Data - China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9 [40] - The CPI in the Eurozone rebounded to 2.2% in November [42] - Hassett said that now is a good time for another cautious interest rate cut [44]