宁证期货今日早评-20251208

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall Market Outlook: The report provides short - term outlooks for various commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products. The market trends are influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic conditions, and policy expectations [1][3][4]. - Commodity - Specific Views: - Metals: Iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term due to stable supply, weakening demand, and inventory accumulation. Copper is likely to maintain high - level oscillations driven by inventory flow and macro - economic expectations [1][8]. - Energy: Crude oil is expected to remain weakly oscillating in December due to oversupply and demand concerns, while coal may see an improvement in fundamentals after mid - December with the start of winter storage [9][5]. - Agricultural Products: Livestock prices are under pressure but have limited downside space. Bean pulp is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term due to weak domestic demand. Palm oil may be strongly oscillating in the short term due to production decline and demand substitution [3][4][6]. - Financial Products: Long - term government bonds are expected to be weakly oscillating, and the outlook for gold is high - level oscillation with limited upward momentum [7]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Metals - Iron Ore: As of a certain period, steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increased, daily consumption decreased, and the inventory - consumption ratio rose. Supply is stable, demand is weakening seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory. Short - term price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Copper: Traders plan to extract copper from LME warehouses, causing a regional shift in global copper inventory. Low inventory in non - US regions and expected Fed rate cuts drive up prices. Short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [8]. Energy - Crude Oil: Drilling rig numbers in the US increased, while refinery operating rates in China decreased. OPEC+ maintains slow production increase, indicating weak demand. Prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in December [9]. - Coal: Coke production and inventories of independent coking enterprises increased, while coking coal inventory decreased. Supply is tight, and demand from the middle and lower reaches is weak. After mid - December, winter storage may improve the situation [5]. Agricultural Products - Livestock: Pig slaughter weight increased, slaughter rate decreased, and breeding profits improved slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand recovery is slow. Prices are at a low level with limited downside space [3]. - Bean Pulp: Feed enterprise bean pulp inventory increased. The domestic market is weak, and demand growth is limited by the poor performance of the breeding industry. Short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in November, and India's cancellation of soybean oil orders may boost palm oil demand. Domestic prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. Financial Products - Long - term Government Bonds: Money market interest rates are rising, and the year - end capital situation may tighten. Stock market expectations are suppressing bond prices. Long - term bonds are expected to be weakly oscillating [7]. - Gold: The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike may offset the impact of Fed rate cuts. Gold's upward momentum is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [7].