供需矛盾有限，注意短线回调风险：中辉期货钢材周报-20251208

Market Overview - This week, the black sector entered the contract roll - over period. The main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and coking coal were switched to the May contracts. The market showed mixed trends. The main contract of rebar rose 1.3% this week, hot - rolled coil rose 1%, iron ore fell 1%, coke rose 0.7%, and coking coal fell 1% [2]. - In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil both decreased, but their inventory performances were significantly different. Rebar destocking was normal, while hot - rolled coil destocking remained difficult and faced certain pressure. Pig iron output continued to decline. In December, many steel mills carried out maintenance and shutdowns, which had a greater impact on construction steel. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, and the driving force for basis repair was limited. Next week, the economic work conference will be held, and the content of the conference should be noted [2]. Steel Production Monthly Data (October 2025) | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel Products | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] Weekly Data (December 5, 2025) | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 189310 | - 16770 | - 3% | 216980 | - 10960 | - 6% | 503800 | - 27670 | 13.84% | | Wire Rod | 80010 | - 2160 | - 7% | 83000 | - 7610 | - 8% | 101630 | - 2810 | 15% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 314310 | - 4700 | 1% | 314860 | - 5360 | 1% | 400350 | - 550 | 31% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 85520 | 760 | 1.73% | 87480 | 1380 | 0.96% | 167680 | - 1960 | 18.69% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 159820 | - 3890 | 4.53% | 162030 | - 1280 | 4.39% | 192120 | - 2230 | 5.41% | | Total | 828950 | - 26760 | - 0.13% | 864000 | - 24000 | - 1.15% | 1366000 | - 35220 | 17.71% | [5] Steel Production Profit (December 4, 2025) | Region | Rebar - Blast Furnace Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Valley Electricity Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Flat Electricity Change | Hot - Rolled Coil - Blast Furnace Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 112, 5 | 20, 0 | - 101, 0 | 114, 10 | | North China | 74, - 5 | 33, 0 | - 51, 0 | 19, 5 | | Central China | 175, 0 | 186, 5 | 55, 5 | 65, - 10 | [20] Steel Demand Building Materials Consumption - The cumulative year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 8%, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 17% [27]. - The marginal improvement of cement outbound volume was observed. Currently, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 25%. The concrete shipment volume increased month - on - month, and the absolute level was comparable to the same period last year. Currently, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 8% [30]. Coil Consumption - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year. After October, the domestic - foreign price difference declined again [36]. Steel Inventory Rebar Inventory - The rebar basis remained stable this week with limited fluctuations. After November, the basis usually weakens. In the past, the basis convergence stage was usually characterized by the upward oscillation of the futures market. Currently, the rebar output was lower than the same period last year. It was expected that the inventory would enter the normal destocking stage later, the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and the basis was expected to remain stable [50]. Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable but showed a weakening trend. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory remained stable, and the inventory in East China decreased slightly. The recent difficult destocking of hot - rolled coil exerted certain pressure on the spot market, leading to the weakening of the basis [54]. Spread Analysis - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar slightly declined from near the flat - water level this week. The recent decline in rebar inventory and the decrease in the year - on - year inventory growth rate were beneficial for the spread to go positive. After the main contract roll - over of rebar was completed, the inventory in East China was still high, and the 1 - 5 spread might have some room to weaken [60]. - The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil slightly weakened and re - entered the contango structure. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the spread [64]. Strategy Suggestion - Currently, steel lacks obvious market - driving factors. After entering the off - season of demand, macro - events and expectations are usually important sources of market logic. However, the current policy environment is rather calm and difficult to boost the market. From the fundamental perspective, apart from the production cuts and restrictions of steel mills in December, there is also a lack of upward - driving factors. The high inventory of hot - rolled coil creates a downward - driving force, but the overall demand for coils is not bad. Therefore, the current contradictions are limited, and the market lacks themes for directional trading, and may continue to fluctuate within a range. This week, steel prices rose to near the previous high, and the room for further upward movement may be rather limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of decline [2].