棉花：涨势放缓，关注下游需求

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The cotton price uptrend is slowing down, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2601 closed at 13,750 yuan/ton with a -0.29% daily increase, and its night - session price was 13,720 yuan/ton with a -0.22% - -0.45% change. CY2603 closed at 20,005 yuan/ton with a 0.58% daily increase, and its night - session price was 19,915 yuan/ton. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 63.95 cents/pound with a -0.14% daily increase [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of CF2601 was 280,440 lots, a decrease of 51,142 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,038,862 lots, a decrease of 1,599 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 5,202 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 15,318 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,709, an increase of 70, and the effective forecast was 2,781, an increase of 35. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 12, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 12 [1]. - Spot Prices: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,626 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or -0.41%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,643 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or -0.27%. The price in Shandong was 15,026 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan or 0.11%. The price in Hebei was 15,017 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan or 0.25%. The 3128B index was 15,022 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan or 0.16%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.13 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.44% [1]. - Price Spreads: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was mainly based on locked basis, with low - basis transactions performing well. The low - basis of cotton spot was firm, while the high - basis was still being adjusted down. The freight for cotton to be transported out of Xinjiang by truck was still rising steadily [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with average trading atmosphere. High - count yarns still had good sales due to low production capacity, while the sales of other varieties slowed down and inventories accumulated. The开机 situation was divided, with Xinjiang textile enterprises maintaining a high开机 level and some inland textile enterprises reducing their开机. The overall situation of all - cotton grey fabric weaving mills was dull, with local market conditions continuing, general sales, weak shipment volumes, increasing inventories in weaving mills, and negotiable prices [2]. - US Cotton: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued to decline due to poor weekly US cotton export data, but the decline was limited due to the weak US dollar [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral view [4].