甲醇日评20251208：短期注意回调压力-20251208

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the callback pressure of methanol. The methanol 01 contract has limited upward space, and the price has fallen below the 2100 mark. The reasons include large short - term inventory pressure, general MTO profit and insufficient restocking power of downstream enterprises, and the decline in coal prices weakening cost support. The recommended trading strategy is to hold the short - put option of 01 until maturity [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol Futures Prices: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, MA01 closed at 2077 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.70%); MA05 closed at 2171 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-1.72%); MA09 closed at 2179 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-1.45%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the price in Taicang was 2082.50 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.19%); in Shandong, it was 2225 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Guangdong, it was 2072.50 yuan/ton, down 17.50 yuan/ton (-0.84%); prices in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1] - Price Difference: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was 5.50 yuan/ton on December 5, 2025, an increase of 11 yuan/ton compared with December 4 [1] 2. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - Coal Spot Prices: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 580 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.43%); the price of Datong Q5500 was 635 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-2.31%); the price of Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.16 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 234.40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-7.86%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at -1160 yuan/ton [1] - MTO Profit: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the profit of Northwest MTO was -267 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-10.33%); the profit of East China MTO was -794.57 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (5.13%) [1] - Methanol Downstream Profit: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the profit of acetic acid was 671.95 yuan/ton, up 56.37 yuan/ton (9.16%); the profit of MTBE was 251.64 yuan/ton, up 7.52 yuan/ton (3.08%); the profit of formaldehyde was -298.80 yuan/ton, up 9.60 yuan/ton (3.11%); the profit of mono - formaldehyde was 346 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (8.81%) [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic Futures Price: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak shock on December 5, 2025, opening at 2113 yuan/ton and closing at 2077 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1.0041 million lots, and the open interest was 0.8721 million lots, with shrinking volume and reduced positions [1] - Foreign Information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - month was 236 - 250 US dollars/ton, with the offer of non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - month last week increasing by 2 - 2.5% and the buyer's bid increasing by 0.8 - 1%, and there was no transaction news for the time being; the reference negotiation price of methanol shipments from other Middle - East regions arriving in the far - month was -1 - 0%, and a small number of shipments from a certain Middle - East country arriving in the far - month had a transaction price decrease of 1%, with insufficient active offers [1]