甲醇周报：基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇反弹空间或许有限-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space of methanol may be limited. The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and the subsequent rebound space of methanol futures may be limited. It is recommended that long positions in methanol futures consider reducing positions to take profits or temporarily exiting the market [1][10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to the expectation of weakening methanol fundamentals, methanol futures declined and adjusted. By the Friday afternoon close, methanol weighted closed at 2,119 yuan/ton, a 2.03% decrease from the previous week. The port methanol market was mainly strong, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2,090 - 2,160 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,070 - 2,110 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price continued to rise, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 1,992 - 2,007 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price from 2,195 - 2,210 yuan/ton [13] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,023,465 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.092%, a slight decrease [16] - Downstream Demand: The overall downstream demand for methanol was stable. The olefin capacity utilization rate increased slightly, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the acetic acid load decreased, the chloride capacity utilization rate increased, and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased [17][19] - Inventory: As of December 3, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from the previous period, a 3.26% decrease; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 239,700 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.90% increase. The inventory of China's methanol port samples continued to decline, reaching 1.3494 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period, a 1.03% decrease [21][23] - Profit: Last week, the theoretical profits of domestic methanol sample process routes for methanol production improved. The losses of coal - based and natural gas - based production narrowed, and the profits of coke oven gas - based production increased [27] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, it is expected that the number of restarted domestic methanol devices will be more than that of overhauled ones. China's methanol production is expected to be about 2.0382 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.74%, an increase from last week [29] - Downstream Demand: The olefin operating rate is expected to decrease, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to increase, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to rise, the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may decrease, and the chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase [30] - Inventory: The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to continue to decline slightly to 356,600 tons. The port methanol inventory is expected to increase, but it depends on the unloading situation of foreign vessels [32] - Overall: The supply and demand of methanol are still loose, there is no substantial positive driving force in the fundamentals, and the subsequent rebound space of methanol may be limited [32]