Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, such as gold with rising rate - cut expectations, silver in a downward - oscillating trend, and copper supported by high risk sentiment [2]. - It also presents detailed fundamental data and market news for each commodity to assist investors in making decisions. Summary of Each Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Rate - cut expectations are rising. The prices of domestic and international gold contracts show different trends, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months [2][6][9]. - Silver: It is in an oscillating decline. There are changes in the prices and trading volumes of domestic and international silver contracts, and the ETF holdings have decreased [2][6]. - Platinum: It continues to oscillate. The prices of different platinum contracts and related spreads have changed [26]. - Palladium: It fluctuates in a narrow range. The prices of different palladium contracts and related spreads have changed [26]. Base Metals - Copper: High risk sentiment supports the price. There are changes in the prices, trading volumes, and inventories of copper contracts, and some copper - related companies have production and export news [2][10][12]. - Zinc: Attention should be paid to the supply - side disturbances. The prices and trading volumes of zinc contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the market [13][14]. - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price. The prices and trading volumes of lead contracts have changed, and there is relevant macro - economic news [16][17]. - Tin: There are new supply disturbances. The prices and trading volumes of tin contracts have changed, and there is relevant macro - economic news [19][21]. - Aluminum: The center of gravity moves up. The prices, trading volumes, and inventories of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the market [23][25]. - Nickel: The structural surplus has changed, but the game contradictions remain unchanged. There are changes in the prices, trading volumes, and related industrial chain data of nickel and stainless steel contracts, and there are relevant news about the industry [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: It oscillates weakly, and attention should be paid to the development of the Nigerian mine - shutdown event. The prices, trading volumes, and related industrial chain data of carbonate lithium contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [35][36]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the development of the Xinjiang environmental - protection event. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [38][39][41]. - Polysilicon: It is a core target for anti - involution, and the idea of buying at low price is recommended. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of polysilicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [39][41]. - Iron Ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of iron ore contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [42]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The market has a long - short game and wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [46][47]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Silicon ferrosilicon is affected by the factory - restart sentiment and has wide - range oscillation, while manganese silicon has a long - short sentiment game and wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [50][51][52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They have wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of coke and coking coal contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [54][55]. - Log: It oscillates at a low level. There is relevant news about the industry [56][59]. - Para - Xylene: It is in a high - level oscillating market supported by cost. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of para - xylene, PTA, and MEG contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][65]. - PTA: It is in a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PTA contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][66]. - MEG: The price hits a new low, and the trend is weak. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of MEG contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][66]. - Rubber: It oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of rubber contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [67][68][70]. - Synthetic Rubber: It oscillates downward. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of synthetic rubber contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [71][72][73]. - Asphalt: The oil price rebounds, and it oscillates in a narrow range. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of asphalt contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [74][82][83]. - LLDPE: The basis weakens, and the upstream selling pressure continues to be released. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of LLDPE contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [84][85]. - PP: The medium - term trend still has pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PP contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [86][87][88]. - Caustic Soda: The trend still has pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of caustic soda contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [90][91][92]. - Pulp: It oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of pulp contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [94][96][98]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of glass contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [99][100]. - Methanol: It runs under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of methanol contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [102][103][105]. - Urea: It oscillates downward. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of urea contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [107][108][110]. - Styrene: It oscillates in the short term. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of styrene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [111][112]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soda ash contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [114]. - LPG: The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term is still under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of LPG and propylene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [116][120][121]. - Propylene: There is an expected increase in supply, and the upward driving force is limited. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of propylene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [116][120][121]. - PVC: It oscillates at a low level. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PVC contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [124][125][126]. - Fuel Oil: It oscillates in a narrow range and may temporarily get rid of the weak trend. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [127]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It rebounds at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of low - sulfur fuel oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [127]. Agricultural Products - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is in an oscillating market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of container shipping index contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [129][138][139]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip: They have medium - term pressure, and it is recommended to reduce the processing margin when the price is high. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of short - fiber and bottle - chip contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [140][141]. - Offset Printing Paper: It is recommended to wait and see. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of offset printing paper contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [143][144][146]. - Pure Benzene: It oscillates in the short term. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of pure benzene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [148][149]. - Palm Oil: Wait for the confirmation of the inflection point and conduct range trading temporarily. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [151][152][158]. - Soybean Oil: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [151][152][158]. - Soybean Meal: US soybeans close down, and Dalian soybean meal may follow a weak oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean meal and soybean contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [160][161][163]. - Soybean: The market oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [160][161][163]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of corn contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [164][165][167]. - Sugar: It runs weakly. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of sugar contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [168][169][171]. - Cotton: The upward trend slows down, and attention should be paid to downstream demand. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of cotton contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [173][174][176]. - Egg: The spot market oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of egg contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [177]. - Live Pig: The weakness continues, and the basis logic returns. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of live - pig contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [179][180][181]. - Peanut: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of peanut contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [183][184][187].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251208
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-08 02:26