宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20251208

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term is偏弱, the medium - term is震荡, and the intraday is震荡偏弱, with a view of观望 due to rising interest - rate cut expectations and easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday are all强势, with a view of长线看强 because of macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Price Performance: Last week, gold prices showed high - level volatility, and Shanghai gold faced resistance at the 960 level [3]. - Driving Factors: Since late November, the upward momentum of gold prices mainly comes from the continuous rise in expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the decline of the US dollar index. However, short - term market pricing of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations is relatively sufficient, and the recovery of market risk appetite puts pressure on gold prices. The decline of the gold - silver ratio and the gold - copper ratio reflects the recovery of risk appetite [3]. - Recommendation: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and keep an eye on the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [3]. Copper (CU) - Price Performance: Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper exceeded 90,000 yuan/ton, and the price of LME copper reached over 11,000 US dollars/ton, both hitting record highs [4]. - Driving Factors: The sharp rise is driven by supply contraction, macro - economic expectations, and financial capital. The root cause is the "mine shortage" upstream. Many major global copper mines have significantly reduced production this year due to accidents and shutdowns, leading to a shortage of copper concentrate supply. Since late November, the expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut has created a macro - economic easing trading atmosphere and strengthened the financial attributes of copper. The price difference between COMEX and LME has led traders to transport a large amount of global inventory to the US, increasing the expectation of spot inventory shortage in non - US regions. The market has a strong consensus on a bullish outlook, and funds have flowed in significantly [4]. - Recommendation: Take a long - term bullish view and pay attention to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [4].