宝城期货动力煤早报（2025年12月8日）-20251208

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term supply of thermal coal is stronger than demand, and the fundamentals are under certain pressure. However, the window period of the weak fundamentals is expected to improve from late December. It is predicted that the decline space of this round of coal prices is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - The intraday and medium - term reference view of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". The price calculation method: for varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is the starting price, and the day - trading closing price is the ending price to calculate the increase or decrease. A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, 0 - 1% decline is oscillatory weak, 0 - 1% increase is oscillatory strong, and an increase greater than 1% is strong. Oscillatory strong/weak only applies to intraday views [2][3][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - In early December, main - producing area coal mines maintained normal production and sales, but traders' hauling attitude was cautious. The coal inventory in northern ports has risen rapidly recently, indicating strong wait - and - see sentiment among end - users [5]. - The National Climate Center released a climate trend forecast report on December 4, showing that there will be 4 rounds of medium and weak cold - air processes in December. The heating demand in southern Chinese cities may enter the peak season from late December to January [5]. - As of December 3, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.297 million tons, with a month - on - month significant inventory accumulation of 4.056 million tons and 2.851 million tons lower than the same period last year. The accumulation of intermediate - link inventory reflects the increasing wait - and - see sentiment of downstream users, which is one of the important reasons for suppressing the weakening of coal prices [5].