渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.08）-20251208

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Research - The US economic indicators show a mixed trend, with the ISM manufacturing PMI remaining below the threshold for nine consecutive months, indicating ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector. The new orders index saw its largest month-on-month decline in six months, reflecting weak demand [3][4] - In contrast, the service sector PMI continues to expand, with the business activity index reaching a three-month high. However, the job market shows concerns, with the ADP employment figures for November indicating the largest decline since March 2023, particularly in professional services and manufacturing [3] - In the Eurozone, the overall CPI growth rate increased in November, driven by rising service inflation, reinforcing market expectations that the European Central Bank will not lower interest rates in the short term [4] Group 2: Domestic Environment - The manufacturing PMI in China improved slightly in November but remains weak, having been below the threshold for eight consecutive months. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell into contraction territory due to the end of holiday effects [4] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December is expected to set the tone for 2026's monetary and fiscal policies, with a focus on maintaining spending intensity and supporting technological innovation and livelihood sectors [4] - High-frequency data indicates a slight recovery in real estate transactions, while upstream prices for coking coal and coke have risen, and non-ferrous metal prices are showing volatility [4] Group 3: Fixed Income Research - In November, the central bank's liquidity net injection exceeded 300 billion, keeping funding prices low, with DR007 fluctuating around 1.40-1.45%. The interbank certificate of deposit yields have slightly increased due to pressure on bank liabilities [6][7] - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with a decrease in government bond issuance and an increase in local government bond issuance by over 300 billion, primarily due to the launch of special bonds [7] - The outlook for the bond market suggests that while the economic growth target for 2025 is achievable, the market will be influenced by policy expectations and institutional behaviors, with a focus on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference [8]