国泰君安期货所长早读-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of stock index futures continues, and the real breakthrough depends on policy signals. The market is affected by the capital supply - demand logic before the end of the year, and the market's expectation of the spring rally is rising. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate decision will also affect the market [8][9]. - For ethylene glycol, the trend is weak, and the 5 - 9 month spread should be inversely arbitraged at high levels. It is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the next 2 - 3 months [11][79]. - For offset printing paper, after the long - position stop - profit, the market is weak. Although the sharp decline gives the cost - effectiveness of long - position, there is a lack of bullish drivers in the short term [12][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures - Core View: Short - term rebound continues, and the breakthrough depends on policy signals. Affected by year - end capital supply - demand logic, and the expectation of spring rally is rising. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate decision is also influential [8][9]. - Analysis: The market is in a volatile state recently, with no unexpected bullish or bearish factors. The reduction of risk factors for insurance companies' related businesses and the relaxation of brokers' capital space and leverage limits are beneficial to the financial sector. The market is looking forward to the "15th Five - Year Plan" policy, and the Fed's interest - rate decision will also affect the market direction [8][9]. 2. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Core View: The trend is weak, and the 5 - 9 month spread should be inversely arbitraged at high levels. It is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the next 2 - 3 months [11][79]. - Analysis: Although the weekly device changes are small, the price hits a new low, reflecting the market's expectation of significant inventory accumulation. New devices will be put into production, and the polyester device's operating rate will decline in February [11][79]. 3. Offset Printing Paper - Core View: After the long - position stop - profit, the market is weak. Although the sharp decline gives the cost - effectiveness of long - position, there is a lack of bullish drivers in the short term [12][13]. - Analysis: The sharp decline of the market is mainly driven by capital behavior. Fundamentally, there are three bearish factors: potential resumption of production by Zhanjiang Chenming, expected decline in paper prices after January, and the drag of pulp prices on paper prices [12][13]. 4. Other Commodities - Gold: The expectation of interest - rate cuts rebounds [17]. - Silver: It oscillates and declines [17]. - Copper: High risk sentiment supports the price [17]. - Zinc: Attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [17]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [17]. - Tin: Supply is disturbed again [17]. - Aluminum: The center of gravity moves up [17]. - Alumina: It continues to be under pressure [17]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: There is insufficient upward momentum [17]. - Platinum: It continues to oscillate [17]. - Palladium: It fluctuates in a narrow range [17]. - Nickel: The structural surplus changes, but the game contradiction remains unchanged [17]. - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand continue to be weak, and the cost - support logic is enhanced [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: It oscillates weakly, and attention should be paid to the fermentation of the Nigerian mine - shutdown event [17]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of the Xinjiang environmental - protection event [17]. - Polysilicon: It is the core target of anti - involution, and the low - buying idea is the main strategy [17]. - Iron Ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [17]. - Rebar: The market has a long - short game and wide - range oscillation [17]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The market has a long - short game and wide - range oscillation [17]. - Ferrosilicon: Affected by the factory's resumption sentiment, it oscillates widely [17]. - Silicomanganese: The market has a long - short sentiment game and wide - range oscillation [17]. - Coke: It oscillates widely [17]. - Coking Coal: It oscillates widely [17]. - Log: It oscillates at a low level [17]. - Para - Xylene: Supported by cost, it is in a high - level oscillation market [17]. - PTA: It is in a unilateral high - level oscillation market [17]. - Rubber: It oscillates [17]. - Synthetic Rubber: It oscillates and declines [17]. - Asphalt: With the rebound of oil prices, it oscillates in a narrow range [17]. - LLDPE: The basis weakens, and the upstream selling pressure continues to be released [17]. - PP: The medium - term trend still has pressure [17]. - Caustic Soda: The trend still has pressure [17]. - Pulp: It oscillates [17]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [17]. - Methanol: It runs under pressure [17]. - Urea: It oscillates and declines [17]. - Styrene: It oscillates in the short term [17]. - Soda Ash: The spot market changes little [17]. - LPG: The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term is still under pressure [17]. - Propylene: There is an expectation of supply increase, and the upward driving force is limited [17]. - PVC: It oscillates at a low level [17]. - Fuel Oil: It oscillates in a narrow range and may temporarily get rid of the weak state [17]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It rebounds at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [17]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): It is in an oscillation market [17]. - Short - Fiber: There is pressure in the medium term, and the processing fee should be narrowed at high levels [17]. - Bottle Chip: There is pressure in the medium term, and the processing fee should be narrowed at high levels [17]. - Pure Benzene: It oscillates mainly in the short term [17]. - Palm Oil: Wait for the inflection point to be confirmed and operate in the range temporarily [17]. - Soybean Oil: Driven insufficiently by US soybeans, it oscillates mainly [17]. - Soybean Meal: US soybeans decline, and Dalian soybean meal may follow and oscillate weakly [17]. - Soybean: The market oscillates [17]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot [17]. - Sugar: It runs weakly [17]. - Cotton: The upward trend slows down, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [17]. - Egg: The spot oscillates [17]. - Live Pig: The weakness continues, and the basis logic returns [17]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the oil mill's purchase [17].