资本市场加深改革稳固慢牛基础

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The release of the "Guidelines for the Performance Appraisal Management of Fund Management Companies (Draft for Comment)" aims to guide fund management companies to link employee incentives with long - term fund performance [1]. - In December 2025, the Fed's December interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in China will affect the rhythm of the A - share market in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and the investment main line in 2026. Before the policies are officially implemented, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and funds may be more defensive. After the policies are clear, market risk appetite may increase [2][10]. - The downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse, while copper supply is turning into a gap due to mine supply disruptions [3][20]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - On December 6, 2025, the "Guidelines for the Performance Appraisal Management of Fund Management Companies (Draft for Comment)" was issued, which makes systematic regulations from multiple dimensions such as salary structure, performance appraisal, payment mechanism, and accountability system, guiding fund management companies to link employee incentives with long - term fund performance [1]. 2. Key Varieties 2.1 Index Futures - The three major US indices rose slightly, and the previous trading day saw a significant rise in index futures. The non - banking financial sector led the gain, while the banking sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 1.74 trillion yuan. On December 4, the margin trading balance increased by 1.3 billion yuan to 2466.489 billion yuan. Before the policies of the two major meetings are officially implemented, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and funds may be more defensive. After the policies are clear, market risk appetite may increase [2][10]. 2.2 Crude Oil - SC crude oil rose 0.82% at night. The US labor market showed stagnant growth and reduced liquidity in November. The US sanctions on two European oil companies may cause short - term supply disruptions but are unlikely to have a long - term impact on the market. The overall downward trend is hard to reverse [3][13]. 2.3 Copper - Copper prices closed lower over the weekend night session. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it still shows overall high growth. The supply - demand of global copper has turned into a gap due to mine supply disruptions [3][20]. 3. Variety Views | Variety | Bearish (Possibility) | Bullish (Possibility) | | --- | --- | --- | | Index Futures (IH, IF, IC, IM) | | √ | | Crude Oil | √ | | | Methanol | √ | | | Rubber | | √ | | Cotton | | √ | | Apple | √ | | | Corn | | √ | | Soda Ash | √ | | | Glass | √ | | | Container Shipping to Europe | √ | | [5] 4. Main News on the Day 4.1 International News - On the evening of December 5, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, discussing practical cooperation and resolving concerns in the economic and trade field, and positively evaluating the implementation of the results of the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations [6]. 4.2 Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang will hold a "1 + 10" dialogue with leaders of international economic organizations on December 9, with the theme of "Consulting on Global Governance and Seeking Global Development" [6]. 4.3 Industry News - In 2024, China's automobile export volume reached 5.859 million vehicles, ranking first globally. It is expected to exceed 6.8 million vehicles this year. Chinese automobile enterprises are shifting from "selling products" to "building brands" and from "single - point expansion overseas" to "systematic expansion overseas" [7][8]. 5. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 4 and 5, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil, etc. [9] 6. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 6.1 Financial - Index Futures: Similar to the key varieties section, affected by the two major meetings, the stock market is expected to be volatile before the policies are clear and may become more bullish after that [2][10]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds stabilized slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond falling to 1.8335%. The market capital is stable. Concerns about global liquidity tightening have led to a rise in US bond yields. The economic situation is generally stable, but the real estate market is still in adjustment. Policy expectations are increasing at the end of the year, which may cause fluctuations in the bond market [11][12]. 6.2 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The downward trend is hard to reverse, with short - term supply disruptions possibly caused by sanctions [3][13]. - Methanol: Methanol prices fell 1.05% at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventories decreased, but they are still at a historical high. Short - term methanol is expected to be volatile and weak [14]. - Rubber: Natural rubber futures declined last week. Overseas supply is increasing, while domestic supply is becoming less elastic. Demand supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [15]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures declined. Downstream demand is stable, but market sentiment is affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities. Polyolefins are currently in a low - level volatile state [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures continued to be weak. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the market is cautious. Attention should be paid to potential changes in production [17][18]. 6.3 Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals are oscillating strongly. Weak employment data strengthens the expectation of a December interest - rate cut, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [19]. - Copper: Copper prices closed lower over the weekend night session. Concentrate supply is tight, and the supply - demand has turned into a gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [20]. - Zinc: Zinc prices closed lower over the weekend night session. Concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and there is no significant difference in supply - demand. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [21]. - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum declined at night. Macro factors support the aluminum price, and long - term supply constraints and low inventories support the price from below. The increase in production in December is limited, and demand shows resilience [22]. 6.4 Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke market was weak on the night of last Friday. Steel mill profits are low, and there is an expectation of reduced iron - water production, which is negative for future demand. However, strong policy expectations in December may drive the market up. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term [23]. 6.5 Agricultural Products - Protein Meals: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and declined at night. Brazil's soybean sowing progress has accelerated, but China's suspension of the export qualifications of five Brazilian exporters has raised concerns about supply stability. US soybean exports are slow, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient, which restricts the upward space of prices [25]. - Oils and Fats: Bean and palm oil prices oscillated strongly at night, while rapeseed oil prices declined slightly. Palm oil production is expected to increase, but the inventory inflection point may not appear until December. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase, which may suppress its price [26]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar prices rebounded slightly at night and are expected to be weak in the short term. Internationally, the early end of Brazil's sugar - cane crushing and India's production and export situation will affect sugar prices. Domestically, sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and import restrictions and high production costs support the price [27]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton prices weakened at night and are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term. Domestic supply is sufficient, downstream orders are decreasing, but consumption is still acceptable. Macro - sentiment and Christmas orders support the price, but there is limited upward space [28]. 6.6 Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC contract opened high and oscillated on Friday, with the 02 contract rising 4.04%. The SCFI European line price decreased slightly. Shipping companies are trying to support prices at the end of the year, but the market is facing supply - surplus pressure. The 02 contract is expected to be volatile, and the 04 contract may decline [29].