铜：风险情绪较高，支撑价格

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The high risk sentiment in the copper market is supporting the price [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 92,780 with a daily increase of 1.98%, and the night - session closing price was 92,380 with a decrease of 0.43%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price was 11,665 with a daily increase of 2.02%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 402,980, a decrease of 51,193 from the previous day, and the open interest was 653,661, an increase of 23,962. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic - trading was 30,645, an increase of 6,105, and the open interest was 342,000, an increase of 966 [1]. - Inventory Data: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 30,936, a decrease of 1,203 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 162,550, a decrease of 275. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 39.28%, a decrease of 0.23% [1]. - Spread Data: The LME Copper premium was 23.05, a decrease of 27.39 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 81,300, an increase of 200. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was 170, unchanged from the previous day. The near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread was - 60, a decrease of 40 [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - Macro News: In September, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core PCE index, rose 2.8% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. The University of Michigan survey showed that U.S. consumer confidence ended four consecutive months of decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level at the beginning of the year [1]. - Industry News: Chile's state - owned copper company Codelco offered a record - high copper premium to U.S. customers, over $500 per ton above the London Metal Exchange price. The Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter was ignited for baking, and after reaching full production, it will become the largest copper smelter in Africa. Chile's copper exports in November were 124,422 tons, with 29,112 tons exported to China. Copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,054,487 tons, with 716,614 tons exported to China. Rio Tinto raised its 2025 copper production forecast due to the accelerated operation of the Oyu Tolgoi copper - gold project in Mongolia. Although Ivanhoe Mines made every effort to recover after a mine earthquake and water inflow, the 2026 copper production of its Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo will still be lower than the 2024 level [1][3]. [Trend Intensity] - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].