国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251208

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. Core Views - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising. - Silver: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. - Copper: High risk sentiment is supporting prices. - Zinc: Attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions. - Lead: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. - Tin: Supply has been disrupted again. - Aluminum: The price center is moving up. - Alumina: Continues to face downward pressure. - Cast aluminum alloy: Lacks upward momentum. - Platinum: Continues to trade in a range. - Palladium: Fluctuates in a narrow range. - Nickel: The situation of structural surplus is changing, but the core contradiction in the game remains the same. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand continue to be weak, and the cost - support logic is strengthening. [2] Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - Fundamentals: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 961.04 with a daily increase of 0.80%, and the night - session closing price was 958.72 with a night - session increase of 0.15%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 13687 with a daily increase of 1.94%, and the night - session closing price was 13788 with a night - session increase of 2.67%. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and price spreads. [4] - News: The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, rose 2.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 13th consecutive month in November. [4][7] Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract yesterday was 92780 with a daily increase of 1.98%, and the night - session closing price was 92380 with a night - session decline of 0.43%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and price spreads. [8] - News: The copper premium provided by Chile's state - owned Codelco to US customers reached a record high. The Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter was ignited, and after reaching full production, it will become the largest copper smelter in Africa. Chile's copper exports and copper ore and concentrate exports in November were reported, and some companies adjusted their copper production forecasts. [8][10] Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 23305 with a 1.92% increase. There were changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, and inventories. [11] - News: The US government's national security strategy has shifted, and the dollar index fluctuated in November. [12] Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17290 with a 0.26% increase. There were changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, and inventories. [15] - News: The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, rose 2.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. [16] Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 317500 with a 0.40% increase, and the night - session closing price was 316550 with a 0.47% decline. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and price spreads. [18] - News: There were multiple macro - level news events, including China - US video calls and changes in US economic data. [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 22345. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2555. For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 21190. There were detailed changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, inventories, and spot prices. [22] - News: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in December, and OpenAI plans to release a new model ahead of schedule. [24] Platinum and Palladium - Fundamentals: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 442.30 with a 0.60% increase, and the closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 381.75 with a 0.66% increase. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and price spreads. [25] - News: The US September core PCE price index unexpectedly fell to 2.8%, and there were various statements from US officials. [28] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 117790, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12500. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various industry - chain related prices. [29] - News: There were issues in the Indonesian nickel mining industry, such as the takeover of a mining area, sanctions on mining companies, and restrictions on the issuance of smelting licenses. There were also news about China's import policies and Fed officials' statements. [29][32] Trend Intensity - Gold: 1 - Silver: 1 - Copper: 1 - Zinc: 0 - Lead: 0 - Tin: 0 - Aluminum: 1 - Alumina: - 1 - Cast aluminum alloy: 0 - Platinum: 0 - Palladium: 0 - Nickel: 0 - Stainless steel: 0 [6][10][24]