格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The vegetable oil market is showing a differentiated trend. It is recommended to exit the long positions of rapeseed oil and enter a small number of short positions in the 05 contract. For soybean oil, exit the long positions as the pressure at the upper edge of the oscillation range increases. For palm oil, it is advisable to wait and see due to the unclear short - term direction. In the protein market, it is recommended to exit the previously - placed long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as the overseas protein raw material market is facing increased supply pressure and the 05 contract after the contract change may be under pressure and show weak oscillations [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On December 5th, the vegetable oil sector was generally weak due to the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and rapeseed oil contract change. Rapeseed oil's near - month contracts had a large decline, followed by palm oil, while soybean oil mainly showed an oscillatory trend. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes in daily - on - daily comparison, with some increasing and some decreasing, and all contracts had an increase in positions [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On December 4th, US international crude oil futures closed higher. The 2025 Canadian rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons. Indian buyers locked in large - volume soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. The November Malaysian palm oil production, export volume, and inventory had different changes. The US used more soybean oil for biofuel production in September 2025. The total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils increased weekly, monthly, and yearly. The spot prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, and the basis also decreased [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the expected increase in the new - year US soybean planting area pressured US soybean oil, while Indonesia's policy on palm oil indirectly benefited Malaysian palm oil, but the potential increase in November inventory was a concern. Domestically, the sufficient supply of vegetable oil raw materials and good inventory led to a weak soybean oil basis. However, the continuous losses in oil mill import and crushing profits made oil mills want to support prices. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and the increase in Canadian rapeseed production caused a sharp decline in the near - month domestic rapeseed oil contracts [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Enter short positions in palm oil. For soybean oil, exit long positions and enter short positions as the pressure at the upper edge of the oscillation range appears. Exit the long positions in the far - month rapeseed oil and enter a small number of short positions in the 05 contract. Provide pressure and support levels for each contract. Arbitrage: Cautiously hold the expanding spread of soybean and palm oil 05 contracts [2] 3.2 Protein Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On December 5th, the main contracts of the protein sector completed the contract change, and the new contracts mainly showed an oscillatory trend. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased in daily - on - daily comparison, and all contracts had an increase in positions [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The 2026/2027 US soybean planting area is expected to increase. China resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies. The Brazilian 2025/26 soybean sowing progress and expected output are known. The Brazilian soybean export volume in November was higher than last year. The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending November 27th, 2025, was known. The domestic import soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventories had different changes. The spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the basis also decreased. The soybean crushing profit and arrival cost are known [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the increase in the expected US soybean planting area and the increase in Canadian rapeseed production pressured the US soybean market. In the domestic spot market, oil mills and traders were reluctant to lower prices, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the off - season of aquaculture pressured rapeseed meal. The overseas protein raw material market has increased supply pressure, and the 05 contract after the contract change may be under pressure [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Exit the previously - placed long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Provide pressure and support levels for each contract. Arbitrage: None [3]