全球资产配置每周聚焦（20251128-20251205）：弱美元下流动性修复，权益商品普涨-20251208

Market Overview - The US ADP employment and PMI data for November were both below expectations, with PMI at 48.2 (expected 49) and ADP employment decreasing by 32,000 (expected an increase of 10,000), reinforcing the Fed's rate cut expectations[3] - The 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, up 12 basis points, while the US dollar index fell by 0.46% to 99.0, indicating a continued weak dollar environment[3][9] - Most global equity indices rose, with the Korean Composite Stock Price Index leading the gains, while the Brazilian stock market saw significant declines[3][8] Fund Flows - Both domestic and foreign capital flowed out of the Chinese equity market, with foreign capital exiting by $5.02 million and domestic capital by $20.15 million in the past week[3][15] - Global money market funds saw inflows of $1,123.3 million, while US equity funds experienced inflows of $16.3 million, contrasting with a $25.2 million outflow from Chinese equity funds[15][16] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation percentile is at 84.3%, second only to the S&P 500 and CAC 40, but remains significantly lower than US equities in absolute PE terms[3][14] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the Shanghai Composite has decreased from 88% to 80%, indicating a decline in relative performance[3] Risk Sentiment - The implied volatility for the Shanghai Composite options has shown a significant increase, reflecting greater market uncertainty and diverging views on price levels[3][6] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,870.40, remaining above the 20-day moving average, with a put-call ratio of 1.07, indicating stable market sentiment[3][6] Economic Data - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is at 86.20%, with a 90.20% chance of rates falling to 3.5%-3.75% by January 2026, suggesting a high likelihood of further easing[3][6]