专题报告甲醇的终点

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The supply of methanol in the domestic market remains abundant, with stable production profits in the inland region and a low probability of loss - induced production cuts this year. On the demand side, the methanol - to - olefins (MTO) plants at ports are operating stably without significant growth potential, and the operating rates of traditional downstream industries are seasonally declining, leading to weakening demand. The gas restriction in Iran has been postponed to mid - December, causing a delay in the decline of domestic imports until February next year. High inventory pressure persists at ports, and with the approaching delivery month of the 01 contract and full storage in mainstream delivery warehouses, it is difficult to resolve the high - inventory issue before the end of the 01 contract. Therefore, the 01 contract is expected to continue to decline [2][49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Since September, the spot price of methanol in domestic port areas has been on a unilateral downward trend. From September to November, the decline of methanol futures prices accelerated, and the main 01 contract fell below 2,000 yuan/ton for the first time in five years due to high port inventories [7][8]. 2. Domestic Supply - Coal - to - methanol profit and production: Coal prices are oscillating at a high level. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol has narrowed, it remains at a high level. As of late November, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 87%, 4.3% higher than the same period last year, and the operating load in the northwest region was 85.64%, the same as last year [12][15]. - Enterprise inventory and market support: Due to factors such as maintenance and raw material supply shortages, some inland methanol plants have reduced production or shut down, resulting in a decrease in local supply and low enterprise inventories. As of November 19, the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 35.87 million tons, a 2.86% decrease from the previous period. The continuous external procurement by CTO in the northwest region supports the firmness of the auction prices of inland enterprises [17][20]. - Coal price and production cut probability: With an increase in coal production in major producing areas and sufficient supply, coal prices are expected to oscillate at a high level this year. The probability of loss - induced production cuts in the methanol industry is extremely low [21]. 3. Port Inventory - Import volume: From January to September 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 9.67 billion tons, a 3.9% year - on - year decrease. It is estimated that the imports in October were 1.45 billion tons, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 11.12 billion tons, a 1.5% decrease from last year. Based on the shipping volume in October, the imports in November are expected to exceed 1.5 billion tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November are expected to exceed 12.5 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of about 150 million tons. The imports in December are also expected to exceed 1.5 billion tons [25][26]. - Iranian supply: The Iranian methanol plants are operating stably, with a daily output of around 35,000 tons. The gas restriction in Iran has been postponed to mid - December, and the imports in December will remain high [31]. - Inventory pressure: Since October, the shipping speed from Iran has accelerated, and the downstream MTO has recovered, but the port inventory reduction is slow. As of November 19, the total port inventory was 1.48 billion tons, at a record high. The available circulating goods at ports are abundant, and port storage is tight [32][36]. 4. Demand - MTO new installations: There was no new MTO installation put into production in 2025. It is expected that 1.45 billion tons of new MTO installations will be put into production in the first quarter of 2026, while the 1 billion tons/year CTO integration project of Ningxia Baofeng and the 700 million tons/year CTO integration project of Shenhua Baotou Phase II are expected to be postponed to the fourth quarter [38][39]. - MTO operating rate: Although the MTO plants maintain a relatively high operating rate, affected by the low prices in the polyolefin market, enterprises' procurement willingness is cautious. The expected reduction in olefin demand makes it difficult to support the methanol market effectively. The overall MTO operating rate has remained high this year due to factors such as improved profit margins [42][44]. - Traditional downstream demand: The profits of traditional downstream industries such as MTBE, glacial acetic acid, and chlorides have shown a significant downward trend in the past five years, with some entering the loss - making range. The operating rates of some traditional downstream industries have declined seasonally. For example, the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 5.33%, a 5% year - on - year decrease, and the operating rate of glacial acetic acid is 67.13%, a 25% year - on - year decrease [47]. 5. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Outlook: The supply will remain abundant, demand will be weak, high inventory pressure will persist, and the 01 contract is expected to decline further [49][50]. - Strategy: Hold short positions as the high - inventory pressure will cause methanol prices to continue to fall [3][51].