尿素早评20251208：短期注意回调风险，仍以逢低做多为主-20251208

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term, attention should be paid to the callback risk as the recent decline in coal prices brings some callback pressure to the coal chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the supply - demand surplus pressure, but from a driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Changes - Futures Prices: On December 5, compared with December 4, UR01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.89%), UR05 by 9 yuan/ton (-0.52%), and UR09 by 11 yuan/ton (-0.62%). [1] - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): Among them, the prices in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58% and 0.59% respectively), the price in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.64%), and the prices in Henan, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged. [1] - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream Prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton (0.97%), and in Henan by 10 yuan/ton (0.38%). The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 6 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1696 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1696 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1672 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1682 yuan/ton, and the position was 200,353 lots. [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips. [1]