宏源期货螺纹热卷早报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of finished products are both in a downward phase during the off - season. The investment data remains weak, and domestic demand is poor. However, exports maintain strong resilience with the advantage of trading volume for price. The supply is in a production - reduction stage, with a rapid contraction in rebar production and a partial repair of supply - demand contradictions. The hot - rolled coil production is still relatively high, with slow inventory depletion and a weaker fundamental situation compared to rebar. During the recent production - reduction period, the profit per ton of steel may be restored. Operators are advised to be cautious [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Rebar Futures: On December 5, 2025, RB2605 closed at 3157 (down 18 from the previous day), RB2610 at 3192 (down 17), and RB2601 at 3137 (down 11). The spreads such as RB10 - RB01, RB05 - RB10 also changed. The 05, 10, and 01 contract rebar disk profits were 16, 62, and 36 respectively, showing different changes compared to the previous day [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: On December 5, 2025, HC2605 closed at 3320 (down 15 from the previous day), HC2610 at 3329 (down 15), and HC2601 at 3312 (down 11). The spreads such as HC10 - HC01, HC05 - HC10 changed. The 05, 10, and 01 contract hot - rolled coil disk profits were - 71, - 51, and - 39 respectively, with corresponding changes [2] - Night - Session Futures: RB2601 closed at 3120, RB2605 at 3132, HC2601 at 3301, and HC2605 at 3304. The rebar 1 - 5 spread was - 12 yuan, the hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread was - 3 yuan. The January contract coil - rebar spread was 181 yuan, and the May contract coil - rebar spread was 172 yuan [2] Spot Market - Rebar Spot: On December 5, 2025, the prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, Shandong Shiheng, and Tangshan Tanggang changed. The cheapest delivery product was 3240 yuan, and the 05, 10, and 01 contract basis had corresponding values [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil Spot: The prices of hot - rolled coils in regions like Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, and Shanghai Rigang changed. The cheapest delivery product was 3300 yuan, and the 05, 10, and 01 contract basis also had corresponding values [2] - Other Spot Products: The prices of products such as Tangshan billet, East China scrap steel, Lecong Magang cold - rolled steel, and Shanghai Magang cold - rolled steel remained stable or changed slightly. There were also changes in spot regional price differences and spot profits [2] Important Information - Production Line Maintenance: Last week, 25 production lines in steel mills in 15 provinces were under maintenance (14 more than the previous week), and 2 production lines were restarted (4 fewer than the previous week). The production affected by maintenance was 3.78 tons (5.25 tons more than the previous week), and it is expected to be 44.3 tons this week [2] - Pollution Response: Many places have launched emergency responses to heavy pollution weather. Luoyang launched an orange - level warning on December 7 at 17:00, Changsha launched a first - level response at 20:00 on December 7, and Cangzhou, Handan, Xingtai, and Xi'an launched first - level emergency responses at 12:00 on December 8 [2] - Rebar Market Data: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the national average rebar price was 3326 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The weekly rebar production was 189.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.14%, the inventory was 503.81 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.21%, and the consumption was 216.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81% [2] - Commodity Transactions: On December 5, the iron ore transactions at major national ports were 86.40 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%, and the construction steel transactions of 237 major trading companies were 8.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.1% [2] - Electric Arc Furnace Data: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 53.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.43 percentage points. The average start - up rate was 67.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2] Long - Short Logic - The prices of some common carbon billets in Tangshan, Hebei decreased by 20 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton over the weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan. The prices of construction steel in major domestic markets were stable with a slight decline, and trading was light [2] Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy was provided in the report