Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to rise steadily with a shifting center of gravity due to weekend positive news and improved market confidence [20]. - The bond market is showing a differentiated performance, with the ultra - long end facing uncertainties and the medium - short end having limited room for a "super - oversold rebound" [23]. - In the agricultural product market, most varieties are under pressure or in a volatile situation, affected by factors such as supply and demand and reports [26][27]. - The black metal market is volatile, with steel prices affected by factors like environmental protection and demand, and the prices of double - coking and iron ore showing different trends [58][62][64]. - The non - ferrous metal market is also volatile, with gold and silver prices likely to fluctuate more due to the focus on the Fed's signal, and copper prices rising due to supply concerns [68][70][78]. - The energy and chemical market is generally in a state of shock, with factors such as geopolitical disturbances, supply and demand, and cost affecting prices [112][113][117]. - The shipping market's container shipping is expected to have a short - term high - level shock, with attention paid to factors such as the increase in shipping company prices and the improvement of cargo volume [108][109]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Last week, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and on Friday, insurance and brokerage firms boosted the index. The stock index is expected to rise steadily with a shifting center of gravity. The trading strategies include going long with a light position, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using a bullish spread option strategy [20][21]. Bond Futures - The bond market showed a further differentiated performance last week. The ultra - long end was weak, and the medium - short end was relatively stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of the TF contract [23][24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The USDA is expected to see a decrease in corn and wheat planting and an increase in soybean planting. The market may be under pressure from the report, and the trading strategy is to lay out a small number of short positions [26][27]. Sugar - The international sugar price is oscillating, and the domestic sugar price is weak. The Brazilian sugar production is approaching the end of the season, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The domestic sugar production cost is high, providing some support. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and sell put options at low prices [30][31]. Oilseeds and Oils - The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil showed different trends. The palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in November, but the export was weak. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The trading strategy is to conduct high - low - band trading on the long - side [33][34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - The CBOT corn futures declined. Russia has reduced the export tariff on corn to zero. The domestic corn spot is strong, but the futures may have room for a decline. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 contract on dips and short on rallies, and to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch [36][39]. Live Pigs - The live pig price showed a rebound, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The trading strategy is to wait and see and sell wide - straddle options [40][41]. Peanuts - The peanut spot price is stable, but the futures price is oscillating downward. The trading strategy is to short the 01 contract on rallies and conduct a 15 - contract reverse arbitrage [43][44]. Eggs - The egg demand is average, and the price has declined. The short - term is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - side can be considered for the far - month contracts. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [46][48]. Apples - The apple cold - storage inventory is low, providing support for the price. The trading strategy is to expect high - level oscillations and wait and see [49][51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The ICE cotton futures declined. The supply of new cotton is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be mainly oscillating. The trading strategy is to wait and see [53][55]. Black Metals Steel - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and steel prices are oscillating. Affected by environmental protection and demand, the short - term is expected to be in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to go short on rallies and conduct spread trading [57][58][59]. Double - Coking - The sentiment is weak, waiting for the start of winter storage. The short - term is expected to continue to be weak, but the downward space is limited. The trading strategy is to stop profiting on short positions [60][62]. Iron Ore - The price is expected to be mainly weak. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The trading strategy is to take a short - side view [63][64]. Ferroalloys - The price rebounds in the short - term due to cost, but the upward space is limited by demand. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - After the release of the PCE data, the prices fluctuated. The market is focusing on the Fed's signal, and the price volatility is expected to increase. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the support level of gold and go long on silver cautiously [68][70][72]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum is recommended to go long on dips, and palladium is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is to go long on platinum, conduct a long - platinum - short - palladium spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options for platinum [73][74][75]. Copper - The copper price rose due to concerns about non - US long - term supply. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [76][78][79]. Alumina - The price is expected to be weak before the expiration of warehouse receipts. The trading strategy is to wait and see [80][83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The price is expected to be strong, with obvious fundamental support. The trading strategy is to go long [84]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price follows the aluminum price. The trading strategy is to wait and see [86]. Zinc - The price is in a wide - range oscillation. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [88][91][92]. Lead - The price is in a range - bound oscillation. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and be vigilant against macro - factors [93][94]. Nickel - The oversupply is narrowing, leading to a rebound in the price. The trading strategy is to test the resistance on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money call options [95][97]. Stainless Steel - The price is in a weak - shock state, waiting for policy stimulus. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [98][99]. Industrial Silicon - Due to environmental pressure in the northwest, the price may rebound in the short - term. The trading strategy is to stop profiting on short positions [100]. Polysilicon - With the increase in delivery brands, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The trading strategy is to go short on the long - side and use a double - buy option strategy [102][103]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply is back in focus, and the price continues to decline. The trading strategy is to buy after a sufficient correction on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money call options [104][105]. Tin - The price lacks upward momentum, and the trading strategy is to pay attention to macro - impacts and expect high - level oscillations [106][107]. Shipping Industry Container Shipping - Shipping companies are starting to increase prices in January, and the market is expected to be in a short - term high - level shock. The trading strategy is to take partial profits on long positions and conduct a 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage [108][109][110]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect a wide - range oscillation and pay attention to the spread [112][113]. Asphalt - The supply and demand are weak, and the price is in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and sell out - of - the - money call options [114][117]. Fuel Oil - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils have a weak fundamental outlook. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and pay attention to the spread [118][120]. Natural Gas - LNG is weak, and US natural gas has broken through and risen. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and use option - selling strategies [121][123]. PX & PTA - PX supply is abundant, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and conduct a reverse spread [124][126]. BZ & EB - The cost lacks support, and inventory needs to be reduced. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and sell out - of - the money call options [127][130]. Ethylene Glycol - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the price is falling. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and sell out - of - the money call options [131][132]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber factory has an expectation of inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and use a double - sell option strategy [133][134]. Bottle Chips - The demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and use a double - sell option strategy [135][137]. Propylene - High inventory suppresses the price. The trading strategy is to go short on rallies and sell call options [138][140]. Plastic PP - The price is expected to be weak. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the support level [141][142]. Caustic Soda - The price is weak. The trading strategy is to expect a weak trend and wait and see [143][146]. PVC - The price hits a new low. The trading strategy is to expect a weak trend [147][148]. Soda Ash - The price is in an oscillating state. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and pay attention to the spread [150][152]. Glass - The price is weak and oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect the supply - side contraction to determine the winter - storage strength and pay attention to the spread [153][155]. Methanol - The price is in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation [156]. Urea - The price rises and then falls. The trading strategy is to go short on the long - side and pay attention to the spread [158][161]. Pulp and Paper Industry Pulp - The spot market price has fallen from a high level. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try short positions [163][164]. Logs - The fundamental situation is weakening. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go long on a small scale [167][168]. Offset Printing Paper - The supply pressure remains high, and the market continues to decline. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go short on rallies [170][172]. Rubber Industry Natural Rubber - The warehouse receipts are accumulating, and the tire inventory remains unchanged. The trading strategy is to hold short positions on the RU01 contract and go long on the NR02 contract with a small amount [173][176]. Butadiene Rubber - The total warehouse receipts are reducing inventory, and the tire inventory remains flat. The trading strategy is to hold short positions on the BR02 contract [177][179].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251208
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-12-08 03:14