国泰海通晨报-20251208

Macro Research - The US economy is in a marginal downtrend, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to likely cut rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, and potentially 2-3 more cuts in 2026, indicating a preventive rate-cutting cycle that continues to influence major asset classes [4][5][30] - The Japanese central bank is expected to raise interest rates in December, which may introduce liquidity risks [4][5] Strategy Research - The Chinese stock market is anticipated to enter a cross-year rally after a prolonged period of sideways movement, with a favorable window from December to February driven by policy, liquidity, and fundamentals [5][30] - Key sectors to watch include technology, brokerage firms, and consumer goods [5][30] Non-Bank Financial Research - Insurance capital is expected to strengthen the logic of long-term investments in the market, with regulatory benefits for leading brokerage firms likely to be released [10][11] Coal Mining Research - The issue of electricity shortages in the US, driven by AI advancements, is becoming increasingly clear, necessitating systematic solutions for power supply, which presents certain investment opportunities in the industry [12][13]